24/05/15 The US dollar index pulled back as expected. BTC must effectively break through the pressure. Will the trend remain volatile?
Bitcoin rebounded from 60187 to 63450 in a U-shaped pattern. It fell back to Powell's speech in the evening yesterday. Bitcoin short-term ups and downs. The triangle structure inside the daily box is facing the end of a change. It broke out of the rising channel in 1 hour. The 60,000 support is still very critical.
Ethereum daily line was supported at more than 2800 three times. This is the fourth time. Whether it can hold up depends on today and tomorrow. MA120 and MA20 dead cross must stand above the two moving averages again, otherwise it is not ruled out that it will fall to around 2600-2700. The US CPI will be released tonight, so we need to pay attention to the fluctuations in the market.
Flatbread
45 days after the first BTC halving, the big market started!
The second BTC halving was followed by a bull market 102 days later!
The third BTC halving was followed by the start of the big market 145 days later!
The fourth BTC halving...
It has been 62 days since the high point adjustment, 76 days since the breakthrough of 60,000, and 25 days since the halving. The daily convergence triangle has at most 10 days to choose a direction. I wonder if the old leeks who have been halving for 20 years remember that after 312, there was also a narrow range of fluctuations for 2-3 months. At that time, there was more panic than now. Many people think that the 519 trend will be replicated. From the current market, it is somewhat similar, but when it was more than 72,000, we saw a sharp drop to 53,000-56,000 and the lowest fell to 56,500. At present, I personally think that it will not necessarily replicate the previous trend. 519 opened up the downward space after falling to MA120 for the second time. Only when it falls below MA120 again will the probability of replication be higher.
On the daily chart, there have been lower shadows for a week in a row, testing the 60,000 support line again. If it falls below, it will test the 58,000MA120 support again, and then we need to pay special attention.
There is an upward channel in the 4-hour chart and it is also inside the triangle convergence. Therefore, in my opinion, the price will plummet only if it falls below 60,000 and 58,000. Otherwise, it will tend to fluctuate upward. (Beware of these two positions)
support:
pressure:
ether
Ethereum is testing the 2800 support again. The daily line is in a descending wedge shape. The lower support of the wedge is 2640-2700 or MA200. Even if the price of Bitcoin falls below 60,000 to 58,000, Ethereum still has room to fall. At present, the rebound of Ethereum is too weak. MA120 and MA20 are dead crosses. At least, we have to wait until the weekly line stops falling and rebounds before Ethereum and other altcoins can open positions...
support:
pressure:
