Next week, the U.S. will announce the inflation CPI, which was 3.5% before and 3.4% expected; the core CPI was 3.8% before and 3.6% expected. Only when inflation continues to decline will the Fed be brought back to the negotiation table for interest rate cuts and reverse the current unfavorable situation.

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Several major U.S. financial institutions have collaborated to test the advantages of shared ledger technology for joint settlement of tokenized assets, such as commercial bank funds and various types of securities. Participants in the new phase include well-known financial institutions such as Mastercard, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, U.S. Bancorp, Wells Fargo, Visa, Swift, TD Bank and ZionsBancorp. The project is overseen by the New York Innovation Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to ensure a comprehensive review of the potential of the technology. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) said that the Wells Notice issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to Robinhood should not pose a barrier to the final approval of the spot ETH ETF. The legal action taken by the SEC against the cryptocurrency exchange appears to be an attempt by the agency to influence U.S. policymakers and lawmakers, who will be responsible for passing cryptocurrency market regulations at some point. If the SEC refuses to approve the spot ETH ETF, it may face legal challenges and ultimately fail. OpenAI plans to announce its AI search product next Monday, stepping up its competition with search giant Google. The announcement date has not been reported before and may change. According to CCData's report, the cumulative trading volume of spot and derivatives markets fell 43.8% to $6.58 trillion, a sharp drop from the historical high of $9.12 trillion in March. The decline was due to unexpected macroeconomic data and negative net flows of US spot BTCETFs, causing major crypto assets to give up their gains in March. According to the 13F information of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, US Bancorp and Rothschild purchased about $20 million of spot BTCETFs in the first quarter. Kaspersky: Nearly 6 million attempts to track cryptocurrency-themed web phishing links were blocked in 2023, an increase of 16% from 2022. Since its establishment on April 30, the total assets managed by six Hong Kong spot BTC and ETHETFs have exceeded $317.4 million.

Robert Kivosaki, author of the best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, said that the United States may face a depression. Although he does not want a depression to happen, he believes that it is better to prepare for it than to live in a fantasy. This is also the reason why he wrote Rich Dad Poor Dad, owned his own business, used debt to buy cash flow assets such as rental properties, stored real money, and now BTC. If you are well prepared, a depression may be a great time to accumulate wealth. Analyst Rekt Capital said that based on historical chart patterns, altcoins may bottom out around early June. During the BTC halving, altcoins were sold off and bottomed out in early summer. In the past month, the altcoin market has been hit hard. The market value of altcoins excluding the top ten cryptocurrencies fell by more than 21% last month to $265 billion. BTC fell for the fifth consecutive trading day, the longest losing streak since October last year. Spot ETFs have had a net outflow of $169 million so far this month, with an overall net inflow of $11.8 billion. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has launched a consultation on whether crypto assets should be included in investment products. The plan aims to expand the scope of application of UCITS (EU Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities). The UCITS market size is as high as 12 trillion euros. If this move is implemented, it will be a key step in the mainstreaming of crypto assets in Europe. The deadline for ESMA's consultation is August 7, and whether it will be approved or not remains to be seen.

Andrea Pantaleo, a lawyer at DLA Piper, said the impact of this move will go far beyond U.S. ETFs, as many fund sectors may invest some of their liquidity in crypto assets. On Friday, the minutes of the ECB's April meeting showed that several members believed that the conditions for a rate cut had been met in April, and if wage and inflation data remain at their current relatively mild levels, the next move will be a rate cut, most likely on June 6. ECB Executive Board member Elderson said that if the outlook for consumer prices is confirmed by the latest quarterly forecasts, the ECB is "very likely" to cut interest rates at its June meeting, and he believes the central bank is likely to take a step. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 4 was 231,000, the highest since the week ending August 26, 2023. The weakening momentum in the job market has put the Fed's two rate cuts this year back on the negotiating table, and financial markets expect the Fed to start its easing cycle in September. Bank of America cited EPFR data: In the most recent week, bond funds attracted $17.8 billion in inflows, the largest weekly inflow since July 2021; stocks attracted $14.8 billion, the largest inflow in six weeks; cash inflows were $67.8 billion, cryptocurrencies inflows were $100 million, and gold outflows were $700 million. Standard Chartered Bank said in a research report that the risk of U.S. fiscal dominance brought about by the Federal Reserve's monetization of government debt is rising. In this case, investors may seek alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies, which is good for cryptocurrencies.

Standard Chartered Bank reiterated its BTC target price of $150,000 by the end of the year and $200,000 by the end of 2025. By benchmarking the market against the monetary policies of central banks (such as the United States and Europe), it is easy to refer to where the bull market has progressed, without relying on blind guesses and troubles with a 50% accuracy rate. For example, at the beginning of 2023, the Federal Reserve showed a tendency to cut interest rates, and Bitcoin then ushered in a doubling market; at the beginning of 2024, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates six times throughout the year, and Bitcoin then broke a new high. In April, the six interest rate cuts were reduced to one or two times, and Bitcoin fell. Bitcoin relies on the mainstream market, and the corresponding monetary policy will give rise to the same direction of the market. At present, after experiencing the restlessness of the initial interest rate cut discussion, it is waiting for the confirmation of the interest rate cut time to enter the bull market in the era of monetary easing (Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on July 31). In a high-interest environment, the size of U.S. money market funds has reached new highs several times, rising to $6.03 trillion. Once the interest rate is lowered, the process of interest rates falling from 5.5% to 2.5%, money market funds will look for new investable targets, such as stocks, gold, and currency markets, which can easily give birth to a new bull market. Next Wednesday, the U.S. will announce the inflation CPI, which was 3.5% before and 3.4% expected; the core CPI was 3.8% before and 3.6% expected. If inflation continues to decline, the Fed will be pulled back to the negotiation table for interest rate cuts, and the market will hopefully stop falling and rise. Stay optimistic and trade time for space. The next step is a rate cut, not a rate hike. Have a good rest over the weekend. #BTC