Correct cognition/understanding of interest rate cuts
Don't always think about/call for interest rate cuts, interest rate cuts are not the savior. The period of time when we are constantly expecting interest rate cuts is very precious. At least now we have stories about interest rate cuts to tell. Isn't the ambiguous period before falling in love very good?
Half-baked bloggers don't understand macroeconomics but love to shout about it. Interest rate cuts do not mean that money will come immediately. Interest rate cuts will have a transmission period of at least 0.5 to 1 year. "Interest rate cuts = loosening" will mislead many retail investors. Now many retail investors are ready to rush in immediately after the interest rate cut (waiting to be cut). The macroeconomics needs to be looked at, but it is meaningless to talk about macroeconomics every day.
Half-baked bloggers only know how to call for interest rate cuts. Do they know what it means after the interest rate cut? After the interest rate cut, it is a story of recession. Now the unemployment rate exceeds expectations, which is a good thing, because the unemployment rate rises, so the interest rate has to be cut; once the interest rate is really cut, the unemployment rate exceeds expectations, which means recession.
Macroeconomic analysis is not something you can understand by watching a few videos or reading a few half-baked posts. At least you have to take out all the history of the reconstruction of the world after World War II and read it carefully. You have to understand why the US dollar is the basis of the reconstruction of the world, and you have to understand the challenges currently facing the US dollar.
The period before the interest rate cut is a honeymoon period, a small spring. Ethereum and Shanzhai will go for a while, and institutions also need to sell and cash out before the recession narrative. This is the basic logic of this small bull market.
"There will be no bull market without interest rate cuts" is a dangerous and naive idea. Cherish this honeymoon period and hold your spot firmly. When the interest rate cut really comes, we will clear out/temporarily leave the market, and we will enter the market when the recession narrative breaks everyone's psychological defense line!
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