According to the first quarter 13-F filings (position disclosure regulations) of US companies, 168 asset management companies hold BlackRock IBIT. Last Friday, the US unemployment rate in April was 3.9%, higher than the expected value of 3.8%. Traders expected the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve to be brought forward from November to September.
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Gary Gensler, director of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said: It regulates a $110 trillion capital market, about half of which is the stock market, and half is the bond market and other markets. Cryptocurrency is only a small part of the entire market, but it is a huge part of the scams, frauds and problems in the market, and cryptocurrency investors do not get the proper disclosure they deserve. U.S. Representative Sean Casten said that new legislation is coming, and the bill will crack down on mixers as a money laundering tool. "Big Short" investor Steve Eisman said that cryptocurrency has a "75%" correlation with the Nasdaq index, and Apple may become an important artificial intelligence role. Decentralized prediction platform Polymarket predicts that the probability of spot ETHETF being approved by the U.S. SEC is currently 7%. According to OSL data, the asset management scale of the first batch of spot virtual asset ETFs in Hong Kong has exceeded HK$2.4 billion in the first week of listing. Analysts predict that the asset management scale of Hong Kong spot BTC and ETH ETFs is expected to reach US$1 billion in the future. According to SoSoValue data, the Hong Kong BTC spot ETF subscribed 99.99 BTC on May 7, with a total holding of 4,250 and a total net asset of US$270 million. QCP Capital analysts said that BTC risk reversal has turned for the better, with call options now more expensive than put options, indicating investors' bullish sentiment. They are willing to pay higher prices for options that benefit from BTC's rise than for options that prevent price falls. The strike price for September BTC call options is $75,000, and there is another $100,000 call option.
Kaiko's report shows that the total trading volume of Hong Kong's cryptocurrency spot ETF on the first day was $12.7 million, which is significantly lower than the $4.6 billion trading volume of the US BTC spot ETF on the day of its listing. The Hong Kong ETF market is many times smaller than the US market. Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said that with the inflow of funds from Grayscale, the BTC ETF was in a state of full inflow for the first time. During the severe and sustained downturn in the crypto market, more than 95% of ETF investors still held assets and did not sell. In the long run, two things tend to be true: net growth and relatively strong holders. Long-term BTC sellers saw net inflows for the first time. On May 3, Grayscale GBTC spot ETF had a net inflow of $63 million, and on May 6, Grayscale GBTC had a net inflow of $3.9 million, with net inflows for two consecutive trading days, ending 78 days of outflows. Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra said that Grayscale recorded net inflows, which is significant considering that GBTC has been the source of a large amount of continuous selling. The recent price drop to about $57,000 has cleared the excess leverage of futures contracts. There is enough confidence in the potential of BTC to reach $150,000 by 2025, and the healthy cycle is still in its early stages. The first quarter 13-F filing (position disclosure regulations) of US companies showed that 168 asset management companies hold BlackRock IBIT, the largest of which are located in Hong Kong. Susquehannainternational, with an asset management scale of up to $430 billion, holds more than $1.2 billion in 10 spot BTCETFs, of which GBTC is worth more than $1 billion.
Last Friday, the U.S. unemployment rate in April was 3.9%, higher than the expected value of 3.8%, and non-farm employment was 175,000, lower than the expected value of 243,000. Traders advanced the expected time for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut to September from November. Powell's speech was generally neutral and dovish, pointing out that the Fed's next move is unlikely to be to raise interest rates. JPMorgan said the jobs data "underscores Powell's confidence and if CPI also shows a slowdown, an August rate cut could slip back into the market narrative, with markets now pricing in a 10 basis point cut in August, up from 7 before the report." Basis point. Fed Kashkari believes that if inflation slows down again, or the job market weakens significantly, it may lead to an interest rate cut, and an interest rate increase is unlikely, but cannot be ruled out; Fed Williams: Seeing employment growth slowing , the data may fluctuate in unpredictable ways, and interest rate cuts will be made based on all data, and the interest rate will eventually be cut. The Federal Reserve Kashkari believes that the neutral interest rate is estimated to be 2.5%, which means that once the interest rate cut starts, the Fed will continue to cut interest rates. 300 basis points (current interest rates are 5.5%). Analysts believe that for the market, the sooner the better, as long as the next step is to ease, the financial market is unlikely to be overly impacted by the last monetary easing cycle. The currency market is bullish. The market predicts that this monetary easing cycle will start in September this year. The Federal Reserve is waiting for an opportunity for inflation to decline. The CPI inflation at the beginning of each month may become an inflection point. Next Wednesday, the US CPI will be released in April compared with the traditional currency market. The stock market's decline has multiplied, and its rise has multiplied. The stock market is bullish during the interest rate cut cycle, and the currency market will rise even more. The rise at the beginning of this year was only due to the fact that the interest rate cut was about to begin. The interest rate cut was delayed in the middle of this year, and the interest rate cut in the second half of the year was expected to return. The bull market and Rate cuts keep pace and will come again #BTC走势分析 .