Grayscale, FTX debt, SEC securities supervision, Mentougou, all four are empty.

The market of cryptocurrency is not measured in seconds, but in days.

A few days ago, the market was still peaceful, but suddenly there was a thunder in the clear sky, and bad news broke out one after another, and the market was also going downhill.

On May 8, according to Cointelegraph, Grayscale had submitted a notice to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 7 to withdraw the application for Ethereum (ETH) futures ETF.

Some analysts said that this was a strategic withdrawal.

Ethereum ETF has certain expectations, but the risk of not passing is greater than BTC, because it is also necessary to consider the SEC and CFTC's characterization of it, that is, securities risk.

In the middle of last year, the SEC characterized a large number of altcoins as suspected of "token securitization".

Recently, it was reported again that US regulators began to crack down on security tokens and asked Coinbase to remove some security tokens.

After a year, the Americans took action to regulate "security tokens" again, which is also in line with their style. After all, things should be done from beginning to end.

Brother Wang believes that this cannot be ignored, but it should not be over-interpreted.

Because last year's regulation only accelerated the wash, the subsequent tokens that were identified as "securities" did not fall apart. In particular, SOL began to rise violently after this regulation.

It is also necessary to note that the financial institutions behind SOL are very involved. The relationship between capital and regulatory agencies in the United States has always been complicated and deeply intertwined. As long as capital does not want to, it is believed that it is difficult to completely kill it.

After all, interests determine everything, and SOL represents the interests of many Wall Street capitals.

SOL's largest behind-the-scenes investor was FTX Exchange.

As a victim of this round of bull market, the collapse of FTX triggered a series of "butterfly effects". These include "accelerating the investigation of Binance and the fuse of Zhao Changpeng's imprisonment", as well as the losses of a large number of FTX investors and retail investors, and the continued plunge of SOL.

Today, creditors can finally get compensation, and have sold a large number of BTC, ETH, SOL and other tokens held by FTX.

The price of SOL sold before was around 64 USD and 100 USD. These tokens cannot flow into the market for the time being and are locked.

From this transaction, it seems a bit like a bet agreement. SOL is optimistic in the long run.

Recently, Mentougou has also begun to make progress, and there are rumors that it will start selling.

The above four negative factors have led to a decline in the market.

Personally, I think that the most critical of the above four negative factors is the final conclusion on "security tokens", which is the most important.

Other short-term negative factors will only cause short-term selling, and some negative selling has been partially completed, such as FTX.

Therefore, it is necessary to focus on the dynamics of supervision.

Supervision is a risk, but also an opportunity. Just like the hot regulatory storm last year, there will be some opportunities for short-term FUD sentiment. The subsequent market can refer to the middle of last year.

Specifically, there was a wave of POW opportunities in the middle of last year.

In fact, Wang Ge is happy to see SEC supervision and force large exchanges to remove a large number of security tokens, because only strong supervision can digest some bubbles, reduce the inflation of cottages, and benefit real decentralization.

There have always been contradictions in the view of the future market.

On the one hand, the cycle is correct.

On one hand, there is fake inflation.

In the previous article, the reason why I counted the proportion of retail investors' holdings was to see the status of most retail investors and to determine their own position management.

To be honest, the statistical data is not very good.

The conclusion is that it may take a real wash, so the article also reminds everyone to pay attention to reducing positions. Not long after the reduction, the market began to fall.

This wave of short-term bottom-fishing sales made up for part of the profit retracement and laid the foundation for the next bottom-fishing.

In this market, everything is unpredictable, but there is only one thing that is certain. When most retail investors are on the bus, it becomes difficult to pull the market.

Although there is a high probability that there will be a wave of market before the interest rate cut, there is still room for washing in time.

Every time I see such data, I will reduce my position. In the short term, this data may not determine the market trend, but the upward space is limited and the risk is increased.

In summary, the position of the band should strive to stand on the opposite side of most retail investors every time.

Everyone may have experienced the difficulties of this round of bull market. The previous bull market was difficult, but sector rotation and distributed surges are always possible.

This requires flexible handling, so this round of bull market needs waves.

In fact, after this reduction in positions, there is a question that has been lingering in my mind:

After multiple rounds of bull and bear markets, the market has become mature, and retail investors will only chase the rise and rarely sell at a loss. Jiaoliuqun+V: 2758624303 Then how to clean up the market so that they can completely cut their losses?

After thinking about it, there is only regulation. 94 was one time, 519 was also one time, and there was also the regulation of the Americans last year. Perhaps only the waving of a big stick can make retail investors feel scared.

Letting some tokens return to zero may be the ultimate way to clean up the market.

But how to operate positions under uncertain time and intensity?

It cannot be predicted, so it can only be avoided. I don’t know if there will be, but if there is such a regulatory opportunity, the first thing to remember is that the regulation is for security tokens (pay attention to risks), and those non-security tokens headed by BTC are opportunities instead. #BTC走势分析 #BTC