Visa’s latest metric raises questions about stablecoin adoption and its potential as a widely used means of payment. The stablecoin space is no stranger to controversy, but a recent study has questioned whether these assets are as widely used as claimed.

According to a report, a new metric developed by American multinational payments giant Visa shows that more than 90% of stablecoin transactions are not initiated by real users, indicating that these cryptocurrencies are far from being widely adopted for payments.

Only 10% of stablecoin transactions are real

Visa and Allium Labs have jointly created a dashboard to filter out transactions initiated by robots and large-scale traders, focusing only on transactions conducted by real individuals. According to Visa data, of the total $2.2 trillion in transactions in April, only $149 billion came from "organic payment activity."

This essentially means that less than 10% of stablecoin trading volume actually comes from real users, or is considered “organic” transactions.

“This metric is adjusted to exclude potential bias from non-natural activity and other artificial inflated behavior,” the dashboard states.

The dashboard uses two important filters: a one-way volume filter and a “non-organic” user filter.

The one-way transaction volume filter only counts the maximum stablecoin amount transferred in a single transaction and eliminates redundant internal transactions in complex smart contract interactions.

Meanwhile, the "Inorganic User Filter" is a mechanism for filtering transactions by setting specific transaction volume and amount thresholds to identify and focus on transactions that may belong to individual users, while excluding transactions that may be initiated by automated programs or entities such as large exchanges. Specifically, this filter considers transactions sent by accounts that have initiated fewer than 1,000 transactions in the past 30 days and whose transfer amounts do not exceed $10 million. The purpose of this is to reduce the interference of robot activities and automated transactions such as large exchanges on the analysis results.

By ignoring account transactions that exceed the above threshold, individual user transaction patterns can be more effectively identified, thereby helping to conduct more accurate market analysis, risk assessment or compliance checks. The design of this filter helps to improve the accuracy of transaction monitoring, especially in preventing illegal financial activities such as money laundering and market manipulation.

Is the stablecoin market still in its infancy?

Pranav Sood, Executive General Manager of Airwallex in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, expressed his views on the current status of stablecoins as a means of payment. He pointed out that according to relevant data, the application of stablecoins in the payment field is still in a relatively early stage. Nevertheless, Mr. Sood is positive about the potential for stablecoins to develop in the future. At the same time, he particularly emphasized that in the short and medium term, we should focus on optimizing and improving the existing payment system.

The above views indicate that although stablecoins have potential long-term value, in order to achieve their widespread use in payment systems, continuous improvement and upgrading of the existing financial infrastructure are needed.

Well-known blockchain intelligence company Glassnode previously estimated that during the peak of the 2021 bull run, the $3 trillion market circulation was actually closer to $875 billion.

As a well-known blockchain intelligence company, Glassnode provides data analysis and estimates that are of great value for understanding the current status and trends of the cryptocurrency market. Based on data information, Glassnode estimated the market circulation at the peak of the bull market in 2021, pointing out that the actual circulation is far lower than the generally recognized $3 trillion, and is actually closer to $875 billion.

For stablecoins, volume may be double counted depending on the platform used. For example, converting $100 of Circle’s USDC to PayPal’s PYUSD on Uniswap would result in $200 of stablecoin volume being recorded.

In addition, if stablecoins are widely accepted and become a mainstream means of payment, traditional payment giants such as Visa may face a loss of market share. Last year, Visa processed transactions worth more than $12 trillion. If stablecoins become a major payment method, Visa's transaction volume and market share may face a loss.

As a result, experts have predicted that by 2028, the total value of all stablecoins in circulation could reach $2.8 trillion, which would be nearly 18 times their current circulation. This prediction reflects the cryptocurrency industry’s optimism about the potential of stablecoins in the payment field.

PayPal launched the PYUSD stablecoin last year, and soon after, Stripe announced on April 25 that it would allow merchants on its platform to accept stablecoins for online transactions. This move not only provides a platform for the popularization and application of stablecoins, but may also drive the entire payment industry towards a more efficient and low-cost direction.

At the same time, these measures by PayPal and Stripe are important milestones in the development of stablecoin payments, indicating that stablecoins may play a more critical role in future financial payments. #Visa #稳定币交易数据