Seeing that everyone is in a relatively optimistic mood on Sunday, let me pour some cold water on it. This does not mean that I am bearish, but the liquidity on Sunday is really too low. How low is it? We can see that the number of BTC addresses moved on the chain in the past 24 hours is only more than 52,500. This number is very similar to that of BTC in early 2023. A month ago, this number had to be multiplied by at least 2, and even today last week, this data had to be multiplied by more than 1.5. This means that more and more real BTC holders are unwilling to participate in the turnover.
Even though the price of BTC has returned from $56,000 to above $64,000, liquidity has become lower and lower. Especially when looking at the holdings data, do you feel vaguely familiar? Because when it fluctuated around $65,000 in the past month, the trend of BTC holders was like this in most cases. Investors who made profits and losses early on were completely indifferent to the current price or even a lower price. Some friends have asked whether these investors would react when the price is lower?
I don’t know this, but I know that when BTC fell to $56,000, investors holding positions between $63,000 and $68,000 did not leave the market in large numbers, and it can even be said that there was no turnover of more than 10%! This may be one of the reasons why the price could not fall to $56,000. After all, there are too few investors willing to leave the market, so even if the liquidity is poor and the purchasing power is insufficient, it still cannot fall further, so it is difficult to test the reaction of investors at lower prices at present.
The cold water is here. Although the price of BTC seems to have stabilized at $64,000 and returned to the level a week ago, the price of BTC was also $64,000 at this time last week. If you don’t check the price within a week, you will find that your BTC has maintained the same gains a week ago and a week later. However, there have been hundreds of millions of dollars of passive reduction data this week. Why is this the case? In addition to liquidity, it is emotions.
It is past the time when we still say that the current currency market has nothing to do with the traditional risk market, and it is also past the time when we say that the currency market has nothing to do with US macroeconomic policies. We need to admit that the attitude of the Federal Reserve is the weather vane of the risk market, and the lower the market liquidity, the greater the volatility brought about by this weather vane.
And now we are at such a stage. The market is excited because of the expected actions of the Federal Reserve, but who knows when the market will change its attitude due to new changes. Who can say it? This is not something that any of us or any "dog dealer" can influence. Even the Federal Reserve, the biggest "dog dealer", finds it difficult to estimate what its next move will be. So my attitude is still
"The price trend driven by emotions is bullish when it goes up and bearish when it goes down. It may not be correct." No matter how accurate the prediction is, it cannot withstand the good or bad news brought about by a piece of news.
There is also good news about the price. Although the current liquidity is still not good, as sentiment rises, the#BTCinventory on exchanges has begun to decline again. It is currently less than 17,000 pieces away from the lowest inventory in nearly six years. If this state can continue until the opening of the U.S. stock market next Monday, the price of BTC will be more stable.
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#BTC走势分析 $BTC
