Weekend! Let's talk about the market briefly: If there are no major negative events in the future, the market will return to the upward track. Friday's unemployment rate exceeded expectations, and the surprise of non-farm payrolls gave the market a re-pricing of the Fed's expectations of rate cuts (November will be pulled back to September, and the expectation of two rate cuts this year will be restored). A comprehensive weak data gave the market optimism. At present, the only obstacle for the Fed to cut interest rates is inflation. Brother Ming believes that after experiencing three rebounds in inflation data, the next CPI data will most likely resume the downward trend, and the market will be pulled back to the track of rate cuts. I think the previous decline is sufficient in terms of both magnitude and time. The next rise in the market is likely to follow the expectation of rate cuts or Halving expectations (supply side halved, demand side demand begins to appear)

It is better to believe in the rise before the rate cut than to believe in the rise after the rate cut, because the market trades expectations, and only expectations can drive prices up. On the contrary, it becomes negative after the rate cut, and often usher in a sharp drop adjustment. According to the Fed's rate cut path, it is likely to rise when the rate cut expectations are hyped - it becomes negative when the rate cut is implemented - after removing the leverage, the Fed continues to cut interest rates, the market begins to pick up - and continues to rise until the bull market ends. Brother Ming's method of judging the end of the bull market mainly depends on the emotional side, or when the cycle runs to that position, for example, when some garbage can rise several times (such as eos), then it should be the final stage of madness, which means retreat.