Bitcoin experienced the largest single-day outflow on Wednesday’s ETF trading day. But everything seemed to have returned to calm on Thursday’s trading day. Even some ETFs saw capital inflows again. This is also the key to Bitcoin’s partial rebound.
Although we haven't seen the data from Black Rock yet, we can see that the outflow has been greatly reduced. We just don't know if this is a short-term phenomenon. If we continue to see less capital outflow in the next few days, it will be helpful for the recovery of Bitcoin prices.
I mean to recover to above $60,000. Bitcoin still looks a little dangerous now. After all, we are hovering near the average price line of short-term holders, and now it has fallen back a bit. The latest data shows that it is $59,400. Bitcoin is now trying to stand back here. It is normal to encounter some resistance.
If we look at the price trend of Bitcoin, we are still at a low level. Since the beginning of March, the current price range has been tested many times. In the recent price drop, the number of active addresses of Bitcoin has also decreased a lot, which is similar to the levels in mid-2023 and the first half of 2021. I don’t think this is a common phenomenon. Usually, when the price of Bitcoin rises, the number of active addresses tends to show an upward trend, and when the price of Bitcoin falls, the number of active addresses also decreases. Perhaps in the process of decline, more people choose to hold Bitcoin instead of making frequent transactions and are willing to wait for the price to rise further. After buying Bitcoin, they did not sell it immediately. This behavior also led to a decrease in the number of active addresses, because after Bitcoin is bought, it no longer flows. Coupled with the uncertainty of market trends, more people will choose to wait and see, thereby reducing the frequency of transactions and leading to a decrease in active addresses.
On April 30th local time, at a hearing held at the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington, Judge Richard Jones announced that former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao was sentenced to four months in prison. At this point, the Changpeng Zhao case, which has attracted great attention from both inside and outside the crypto industry, has finally come to an end.
Why did Zhao Changpeng receive an extremely low sentence?
In fact, Zhao Changpeng and FTX founder SBF are very different, because neither Binance nor its founder Zhao Changpeng plundered customer funds. In addition, compared to SBF who did not hand himself over to the court but chose to conduct a stupid defense trial, Zhao Changpeng reached a plea agreement early on, agreeing to pay a fine of up to $4.3 billion and express regret.
In the 2.5-hour sentencing hearing, the 47-year-old billionaire Zhao Changpeng was no longer an ordinary criminal defendant, but a philanthropist, a do-gooder, a first-time offender and a family man who turned himself in and accepted whatever might happen. Zhao Changpeng's reputation as a "good guy" influenced the judge's final judgment. Compared with the US Department of Justice's strong recommendation of a three-year sentence for Zhao Changpeng, the judge finally gave a very light sentence of four months.
Judge Richard Jones said he read all 161 letters submitted because it was important to understand who Zhao Changpeng was. He also mentioned that he had never seen so many letters, not only from family members, but also from people who had known Zhao Changpeng for a long time. Richard Jones pointed out that these letters portrayed a character driven by motivation, passion and determination, and Zhao Changpeng risked all his net worth just to make Binance successful. The letters clearly showed that Zhao Changpeng was a man dedicated to his family and cited the example of Binance's philanthropy.
In the end, Judge Richard Jones rejected the 36-month sentence recommended by the U.S. Department of Justice and announced that Zhao Changpeng was sentenced to four months in prison. The U.S. Probation Office will confirm the start time of Zhao Changpeng's sentence. Zhao Changpeng stated in court that he would accept any day as the start time of his sentence.
Compared to FTX founder SBF, Zhao Changpeng's fate is obviously much better. Due to the accusation of illegally using $8 billion of customer funds, SBF was found guilty of fraud and sentenced to 25 years in prison in March this year. In this regard, former US Securities and Exchange Commission official John Reed Stark said that a short jail term of four months is a small price to pay for a billionaire like Zhao Changpeng.
Has Zhao Changpeng started planning for his release from prison?
Zhao Changpeng was sentenced to four months in prison, which may be just a small episode in his life story, because long before the verdict was announced, Zhao Changpeng had already begun to build a network of contacts across the United States to plan his next move.
After admitting to money laundering violations in November 2023, Zhao Changpeng did not sit still. Although he could not return to Dubai, UAE, Zhao Changpeng could still walk freely in the United States, which gave him plenty of time to travel around the United States, build connections with local entrepreneurs and lay the foundation for his next move.
According to disclosed information, Zhao Changpeng enjoyed a home-cooked dinner with a former US senator in Montana, visited the town of Telluride in Colorado and a resort in Utah, and more importantly, met with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
Last month, Zhao Changpeng announced that he would launch a new project to promote online education. He also expressed interest in investing in artificial intelligence and biotechnology. Two people familiar with the matter said that Zhao Changpeng exchanged contact information with Sam Altman as early as the end of last year to discuss the adjustments encountered when startups expand globally.
According to people familiar with the matter, Zhao Changpeng met with Sam Altman about a year ago, and the two contacted each other again during the leadership battle of OpenAI in November 2023. A month later, in December 2023, Zhao Changpeng and Gu Ronghui, a professor of computer science at Columbia University and co-founder of CertiK, had a hot pot meal in Los Angeles. In an interview, Gu Ronghui confirmed that Zhao Changpeng had communicated with Sam Altman, and both believed that artificial intelligence would greatly help realize the development of technology and human knowledge (CertiK is a Web3 security company funded by Binance). Zhao Changpeng also revealed that he is currently "looking for opportunities" to invest in large data centers that support AI applications.
As of now, Zhao Changpeng and OpenAi representatives have declined to comment on their meeting with Sam Altman.
On the other hand, Zhao Changpeng revealed in a letter submitted to the court that he has also talked with some biotechnology start-ups in recent months and plans to make disease prevention the focus of the next chapter of his life. Zhao Changpeng said: "I want to help fund small research laboratories with the goal of curing diseases once and for all and using blockchain technology to provide medical services to billions of people in the world."
In March of this year, Zhao Changpeng announced on the X platform that he was launching a project called Giggle Academy, a free online learning platform for children. A seven-page "concept document" has been published on the Giggle Academy website, stating that the platform will involve artificial intelligence and automation, as well as NFT digital collectibles. It is reported that Giggle Academy is not for profit, and Zhao Changpeng is recruiting a small team to work directly with him - this means that once Zhao Changpeng is released from prison, he is likely to devote himself to this work, and it may even be realized within a year.
How did the market react after Zhao Changpeng was sentenced to four months in prison?
During Zhao Changpeng's hearing, BNB rose and currently remains in the $580 range. As of press time, the decline in the past 24 hours has narrowed to 2.8%.
On the other hand, the cryptocurrency exchange Binance itself does not seem to be affected by the trial of Zhao Changpeng. According to Coingecko data, at the time of writing, Binance is still the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, with a trading volume of more than $23 billion in the past 24 hours, which is about 4.6 times the trading volume of the second-place Bybit of about $5 billion. In addition, the monthly visits to the Binance platform reached 101 million times, which is about 2.5 times the second-place Bybit's 39.1 million platform visits.
With the verdict coming to an end, Zhao Changpeng's case has finally come to an end. Perhaps because of his special liking for the number "4", a four-month sentence seems to be a result that Zhao Changpeng and the wider crypto community can accept, and it can even be said to be a "good result."
After the verdict came out, Zhao Changpeng’s wife He Yi only responded with two words on social media: “Got it.”, which means “I understand” in Chinese - perhaps everyone understands.
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