Cryptocurrency analysts at Bitfinex predict that Bitcoin may enter a consolidation process in the next two months after the halving.
According to the Bitfinex Alpha market report published on April 29, Bitcoin will continue to be the focal point of price movements in the cryptocurrency market in May. Additionally, Bitcoin is expected to remain a leading indicator that determines the value of the entire cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin Price Still Shows Potential
According to Bitfinex analysts, Bitcoin's realized value (MVRV) ratio is currently at 2.21.
According to analysis, a MVRV ratio lower than the 90-day average has historically offered significant returns to investors; This could be a potential entry point for investors.
While the report states, "The current internal signals we are seeing indicate that Bitcoin is pointing to a bottom level," it is stated that Ethereum and other altcoins are performing better compared to Bitcoin, causing a decline in Bitcoin's market dominance.
Additionally, post-halving periods often show an increase in investors moving towards altcoins that offer potentially higher returns.
These changes are also associated with a slower-than-expected growth in the US economy. According to federal economic reports, a GDP growth of 3.4% was seen in the last quarter of 2023, while this figure decreased to 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024.
Bitfinex Blames Macroeconomic Factors
This slowdown in the US economy appears to be largely due to microeconomic factors. Investors are choosing safer investment options by avoiding volatile assets such as Bitcoin due to rising interest rates.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's main inflation indicator, remained stable in March, increasing by 0.3% on a monthly basis. The annual PCE rate was 2.7%, above the Fed's 2% inflation target, causing concern among investors.
This combination of slowdown and rising inflation has again raised concerns about a stagflation scenario in which prices continue to rise and economic growth stalls. According to CME's FedWatch tool, while the probability of a rate cut in June is 11.8%, this probability increases to 56.5% in September.
However, Bitfinex analysts note that the macroeconomic environment is more resilient compared to previous years. They also note that general consumers and businesses are becoming better informed about the state of the economy, which may indicate a period of consolidation in Bitcoin prices that will last approximately 1-2 months. The Bitfinex report predicts that “Bitcoin could trade in swings of $10,000 during this period.”
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