There is not much to say about the recent market. The suppression at the macro level has made the market full of pessimism. Many professional macro data analysts have made a comprehensive explanation of the cause and effect relationship, future variables, and possible impacts. I believe everyone has a very detailed understanding.
But if we jump out of the present and look back at the past, you will find that it is not so "terrible". The following figure shows the retracement ratio of BTC price from the highest point before and after the three halvings in history.
The first halving, the retracement from the highest point was -61.7%;
The second halving, the retracement from the highest point was -42.7%;
The third halving, the retracement from the highest point was -56.6%;
And this time so far, it has retreated -21% from the highest point of $73,000... If the average retracement of the previous rounds (-53%) is followed, then BTC should be around $38,700 in theory. So, assuming that it has risen from 16,000 last year to 40,000 now, I don’t think anyone would think this is a bear market, right?
Now BTC is still at least around 60,000, why is it a bear market?
Before the ETF expectation hype, BTC was still hovering around 30,000 US dollars, and then it rose to 70,000 US dollars in one breath, an increase of more than 200%; and under the pressure of various macro sentiments including repeated inflation, liquidity tightening, delayed interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical conflicts, etc., it only retreated by -20%. On the contrary, I think BTC in this cycle is more resilient than in previous cycles. If we look back at the bull market cycle from 2016 to 2018, we can find that there were 6 retreats close to or even exceeding -30% during the entire bull market development process. But have we heard that any analyst would say when analyzing the past: During the period from 2016 to 2018, this bull market ended "6 times"? I don't think anyone would make such a "low-level funny" mistake.
Of course, I am not saying that the bottom has been reached now, or that the sentiment will turn in the short term.
We can be "cautious", but there is no need to be "pessimistic" or even "panic". It can even be understood that the next time a cross signal appears in the individual data in the tweets of series 1-3, the main uptrend will start. We just need to wait patiently.
Finally, let me talk about a data: As of yesterday, the SHT-MVRV value has dropped to 0.98
Next, if STH-MVRV continues to fall, the corresponding BTC price level will be:
STH-MVRV 0.95: BTC 56,500 USD
STH-MVRV 0.90: BTC 53,500 USD
STH-MVRV 0.85: BTC 50,500 USD
STH-MVRV 0.8: BTC 47,500 USD
Oh, by the way... During the 5.19 incident, SHT-MVRV was as low as 0.66, corresponding to the current BTC price of 39,300 USD; during the 3.12 incident, SHT-MVRV was as low as 0.58, corresponding to the current BTC price of 34,500 USD;
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