How do you view the current market situation and what should you do?

1. First of all, one thing should be made clear. From a macro perspective, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in Q3 and Q4. We will not go into detailed analysis (the domestic market has already started to loosen its monetary policy, and Europe will do so as early as mid-year).

Second, USDC is a safe-haven option for ordinary people around the world as a new type of US dollar, superimposed on the path of RWA US bonds. Stablecoin + BTC is a new path for Wall Street's global financial strategy. Although the proportion of BTC ETFs allocated by traditional asset management institutions is not high, generally accounting for 1%-3%, more and more asset management companies attach importance to BTC ETF as one of the options for asset allocation diversification.

3. The United States' compliance financialization of BTC ETF. This trend will allow all countries with dollar swap agreements (15 countries) to gradually open up BTC ETF + US dollar stablecoin + RWA US bonds. This is an important step in the digital dollar strategy.

4. Don’t hand over cheap spot chips at this moment. The big players (BTC wallet > 1000 BTC) on-chain addresses are still buying. I will make a unified response here: I am still optimistic about the future BTC 100,000 dollars! So I will buy the bottom in the future! There are still 5 core directions: AI, DEPIN, RWA, GAMEFI, SOL ecology.

Reminder: Do not touch the contract, do not add leverage, and do not borrow money to speculate in cryptocurrencies, remember!

Where is the bottom of the current market trend?

1. Because it has fallen below the strong support of 59,000, there is almost no obstacle between the next level and 52,000. Through Fibonacci, it can be seen that 0.618 and the position of 60,000 have been broken. The next level is 0.5, which is 56,000.

2. However, the possibility of breaking this position is very high. The only strong support is 0.382 below, which is the strong support of 52,000.

3. If an extreme black swan situation occurs and this position is broken, it will be very scary, which means that all the gains of Bitcoin in this round will have to start all over again. It will take at least 1 to 2 months for the market to find its fulcrum again.

4. The possibility of this happening is very low, so we should not worry too much. There is one indicator that everyone should pay attention to, and that is the amount of funds. To determine whether it is a bull market or a bear market, there is a very critical indicator: the amount of funds.

5. If a large amount of funds flow out of the cryptocurrency market, then the cryptocurrency market will be very dangerous. However, this is not the case now. Funds are still flowing in, and the market is falling. There is a divergence. Generally speaking, this position is a good entry opportunity in the big cycle. Many people are worried that the bear market will start. From the perspective of the amount of funds, it is almost impossible. Maybe the golden pit we have been thinking about has appeared. When others are panicking, we should be calm.

6. You and I are both in great pain now. It is best for everyone to curl up their wings and protect themselves well. Do not release all kinds of negative fear emotions everywhere every day and affect others. Just hold on to the spot goods. All your losses now are paper losses. If you believe that Bitcoin will reach 100,000, you will never lose money as long as you can hold on to it.

About the outbreak period of altcoins:

(1) The explosion of altcoins requires sufficient liquidity, and the release of liquidity requires several factors. For example, the altcoin season in 2021 is an unprecedented release of liquidity. Then, a large amount of funds will overflow into ALT after making profits in BTC or other mainstream markets, which will lead to the arrival of the altcoin season.

(2) Therefore, the outbreak of altcoins usually comes after BTC. However, at least this time, although the first batch of increases came from BTC, there was no large amount of overflow funds. Although the current decline is fierce, in fact, a large number of sell-offs came from loss-making investors. Not to mention overflow funds, even the principal is not guaranteed, so how can there be altcoin season?

(3) However, when the US presidential election comes, there is actually a release of liquidity. This release is actually on an overall scale and is even a good opportunity for copycats.

(4) The future is still bright, with only two expected events yet to come: Since last year, the crypto market has had many expected events that have affected market trends, including the US Bitcoin spot ETF, the Fed's rate cut, the FTX incident, the SEC and Binance dispute, the US Ethereum spot ETF, and the halving cycle. As of now, there are still two major uncertain events: the US Ethereum spot ETF and the Fed's rate cut.

(5) The US Ethereum spot ETF will face its first fund approval deadline on May 23, which may determine the current market trend. However, the market is not optimistic about this. It has been revealed by several institutions and SEC insiders that the Ethereum spot ETF will not be approved on May 23, so there may be a new round of market changes around May 23.

(6) In addition, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates was also mentioned in the previous article. At present, the US inflation rate is still facing signs of rebound. Although many Wall Street institutions have indicated that the interest rate cut will come in July, judging from the current situation, the possibility of a rate cut this year will continue to decrease.

(7) In addition to the above two expectations, Hong Kong Bitcoin Spot ETF and Ethereum Spot ETF may become potential factors affecting market trends. Although the trading volume on the first day is not outstanding, the ETF coverage in Hong Kong will include countries and regions in the Asian time zone such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and may become a new source of capital inflow in the crypto world. However, expectations still exist.

Summarize:

In general, the future market trend is still in an overall upward trend, but there are uncertainties in the expected results.

I’m Qiqi. If you want to seize this bull market with me, welcome to join my village. There are a group of like-minded partners there who will buy bottom-fishing altcoins, high-quality currencies, market trends, the latest information, etc. every day.#美联储何时降息？ #以太坊ETF批准预期 $SOL $ETH