Today's Macro Analysis
Has the cryptocurrency market hit the bottom? Is a deep V reversal possible?
Let's take a look at today's analysis:
Yesterday we experienced a dismal decline, with over $500 million of funds flowing out of US spot ETFs, breaking the record. But after Powell's speech, as I predicted, it began to rebound to around 60,000, but a deep V reversal is unrealistic.
After the Fed's interest rate decision last night, what did Powell say? I have sorted out a few key points for you:
(1) Unless the inflation rate moves towards 2%, there will be no interest rate cut
(2) It is unlikely that the next meeting will raise interest rates (good news, if it indicates a rate hike, BTC will fall another 10%)
(3) When will the interest rate be cut?
Bao said that the unexpected weakness in the labor market may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates. If the unemployment rate (currently 3.8%) rises by more than 0.2%, the Fed may consider cutting interest rates.
Whether the cryptocurrency market can reverse in the near future depends on two important data to be released at 20:30 tomorrow night:
(1) US unemployment rate in April, expected to be 3.80%
Higher than expected is positive, lower than expected is negative
(2) Non-agricultural employment, expected to be 250,000 (previous value 303,000)
Higher than expected is positive, lower than expected is negative
There is a 30% chance that it will be positive for the cryptocurrency market. Why is the probability lower? Because the small non-agricultural data released last night was higher than expected, indicating that the labor market is still strong. But the current pessimism is basically reaching its peak.
We are currently facing high inflation in the United States
International conflicts may intensify, and Mentougou is about to release a large amount of BTC. Therefore, lower your expectations and don't chase the rebound unless the situation reverses. If there is a big drop, don't be scared by panic and sell all your stocks. Hold a part of the spot and wait for opportunities, and then keep enough bullets to prevent further drops.
The cryptocurrency market is essentially a highly speculative bubble asset market, which is prone to ups and downs. If you want to get 10 times the return, you have to bear the corresponding risks.
If you feel helpless and confused in trading at the moment, and want to know more about the cryptocurrency circle and first-hand cutting-edge information, click on the avatar to find me. Welcome to like, collect, forward, comment, and leave a message
