How to judge the possible direction of short-term market rise or fall?

1/ How to judge the possible direction of the market's short-term rise and fall? Share a macro indicator that I have been using: the change in the number of stablecoins in the entire network.

2/ Because in the final analysis, as a semi-closed and relatively small market, the ups and downs of the crypto industry, a small pool, generally depend on the changes in the volume of US dollar stablecoins. If there are more stablecoins in the market, asset prices will naturally rise, and vice versa.

3/ Most directly, the total amount and structure of stablecoins in the entire network can be found in the corresponding clues during the surge in June. Starting from June (especially in the middle and late June), the circulation of USDC, BUSD, and DAI stopped the downward trend, and the growth trend of USDT also began to slow down. At that time, the total market value of stablecoins in the entire network remained unchanged at around 129.6 billion US dollars.

4/ But the structural changes are tricky: 1. On the one hand, USDT exchanged billions of dollars to transfer liquidity from TRON to Ethereum; 2. On the other hand, TUSD started printing money in the middle of the month, and its market value increased by 1 billion US dollars, an increase of more than 50%; That is to say, under the background of the unchanged market value of USDT in June, the 1 billion US dollars of TUSD issuance just made up for the slight decline of USDC, BUSD, and DAI. In addition, Binance also began to delist BUSD, BNB and other related trading pairs in June, further concentrating liquidity.

5/ During this period, BNB stopped falling and Bitcoin and other currencies began to rise sharply. From the perspective of incremental funds, the issuance of TUSD and the chain swap of USDT (good for DeFi) may play a key role in supporting/pulling the market.

6/ In the second half of the year, the changes in the growth and decline of USDT, USDC, BUSD, and TUSD, especially whether USDT can maintain sustained growth and whether USDC will stop its downward trend, are likely to have a significant impact on the market again.