At 8:30 pm Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the much-anticipated August non-farm payrolls report. As the last non-farm payrolls report before the Federal Reserve's September decision, this report is far more important than usual.

Currently, the market's expectations for this employment report are not optimistic: against the backdrop of recent "hawkish" voices from many Federal Reserve officials, led by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, if this employment report performs strongly, it will further confirm speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September; and even if this employment report falls short of expectations, it will be difficult to dispel the Federal Reserve's determination to raise interest rates significantly.

However, as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy, the U.S. economy and job market are continuing to be affected. After the U.S. released unusually strong employment data last month, the market now expects that the U.S. employment data in August may fall back and become a key turning point for the cooling of the U.S. job market.

The most important data before the Fed's decision is about to be released

Although each month's non-farm payrolls report always attracts widespread attention from the market, tonight's August non-farm report is particularly critical because it is the latest employment data before the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision meeting and will become an important consideration affecting the Federal Reserve's September decision.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting will be held on September 20 and 21. Before that, there are still important data to be released. In addition to today's non-farm payrolls, the only important data left is the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on September 13. Due to the recent drop in gasoline prices in the United States, it is expected that the US CPI will most likely fall from 8.5% in July, but it will still be at a high level.

Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, said:

"Market participants believe that the employment report is more important than the CPI inflation report in terms of whether the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points or 50 basis points in September, and I think this is a correct view."

The Federal Reserve's new "hawkish" Kashkari also said on Thursday that he would closely monitor the employment report for signs of wage growth.

Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist, believes that if wage growth slows in August, it may provide some comfort to Federal Reserve officials because it may suggest that inflationary pressures are easing.

U.S. employment data in August may fall from the previous month

The U.S. July employment data released last month was unexpectedly strong, which prompted Federal Reserve officials to generally make hawkish statements afterwards. The market has therefore become increasingly worried that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September.

Judging from the leading indicators, the August non-farm payrolls report may be mixed:

The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI employment sub-index rose from 49.9 to 52.8 in August, returning to the expansion zone.

The U.S. ADP employment report for August showed an increase of 132,000, far below the expected increase of nearly 300,000.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States over the past four weeks was slightly lower than last month, at 247,000, but still well above the low point at the beginning of the year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this week that there were 11.2 million job openings in the U.S. in July, 1 million more than expected.

Currently, economists polled by Dow Jones expect the U.S. to add 318,000 new jobs in August, while economists polled by Bloomberg predict an average of 298,000 new jobs in August. Although this expected figure is far lower than the 528,000 in July, it is still relatively high.

Economists expect the U.S. unemployment rate to remain stable at 3.5%, and average hourly earnings are expected to grow by 0.4%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 5.3%.

However, it is worth mentioning that this non-farm employment report may have a large deviation from expectations, just like last month.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said that although the August employment report has attracted much attention, the non-farm survey data may have large errors.

"August tends to be the month with the lowest response rate for nonfarm payrolls in the year, so there could be some very large revisions," she said. "Given that this number could be subject to large revisions, you have to be skeptical of the data."

Matt Weller, global research director of Gain Capital, also pointed out in the report that due to the unprecedented disturbance of the epidemic, the uncertainty and instability of the US labor market are higher than usual. In the current global context, the range of predicted fluctuations has expanded unprecedentedly.

Bad news is good news?

Like several previous non-farm reports, market strategists generally believe that this employment report may be seen as a "bad news is good news" type of report.

U.S. stocks have been falling for several days before the release of this week's non-farm payrolls report. If the employment data is strong, it may trigger a further sell-off in U.S. stocks and push up U.S. Treasury yields because investors will believe that a strong job market will make the Federal Reserve more aggressive in raising interest rates.

On the contrary, if the employment data is weak, it will slightly alleviate the market's concerns about the Federal Reserve's large-scale interest rate hikes - but the reduction will not be large.

In theory, strong non-farm payrolls data will boost the US dollar. FXCM believes that if the non-farm payrolls report is stronger than expected, investors can consider buying USD/JPY. If the non-farm payrolls report is weak, it may constitute a short-term buying opportunity for GBP/USD.

"Weak economic data will lead to a bond rally," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. "That will lead to a weaker dollar and a rebound in stocks. But I don't know how long this will last because buying stocks in a recession is not a good strategy."

In fact, investors are well aware that even if the non-farm data is indeed worse than expected, it is difficult to fundamentally shake the Fed's determination to raise interest rates sharply. Last Friday, Fed Chairman Powell made it clear at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting that the Fed is committed to fighting inflation by raising interest rates, and the Fed will not back down even if the economy and labor market may feel "painful."

Could the U.S. job market be at a cooling turning point?

Both KPMG's Swank and Bank of America's Gapen predict that although the U.S. job market has remained strong so far, it may be at a cooling turning point as the Federal Reserve's tightening policy takes its toll on the labor market, and monthly new employment data will begin to turn negative early next year.

Swank believes that the current inflationary pressure and rising interest rate environment may have a greater impact on small business recruitment than large companies. She expects that small businesses may currently be in a certain degree of labor "hoarding" because companies will have to retain workers instead of firing them because they are having difficulty finding workers.

She explained using the leisure and hotel industry as an example: usually in late summer every year, the hotel and leisure industry will enter a seasonal downturn and lay off employees; but this may not happen this year because companies are already short-staffed when entering the summer vacation season - but by the beginning of next year, this situation should change.

After the ADP data in August unexpectedly weakened, ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson also said: "Our data show that the pace of hiring has shifted to a more conservative pace, which may be because companies are trying to interpret conflicting signals in the economy. We may be at a turning point, from strong job growth to a more normal situation." #BTC #ETH #BCH