The Bull Market May Be Over, According to Brandt

In his latest analysis shared with CoinDesk, Brandt outlined the possibility that Bitcoin may have peaked its upward move and the bull market may be over, contradicting his previous prediction from February. At that time, he predicted that the upward cycle, which started from the bottom of the bear market in November 2022, would potentially continue until September 2025 and the price could rise up to 200 thousand dollars.

Brandt's latest Bitcoin projection is based on the statistical concept of "exponential decay," which describes the process of a quantity decreasing by a consistent percentage rate over a period of time. He noted that Bitcoin has historically moved in roughly four-year bull/bear cycles, and these cycles are often tied to block reward halvings. Each subsequent bull cycle tends to show about 80 percent less strength than the previous one in terms of how much the price has multiplied.

Referring to historical data, the analyst pointed out that if the statistical constant of the 80 percent decline is correct, Bitcoin's last record level of $ 73 thousand 835 on March 14, 2024 is at the same level as the historical exponential decline. This analysis is also based on the pattern of diminishing returns observed in successive bull markets.