The biggest event for Bitcoin has passed. Two events. The Spot ETF and the halving.
Altcoins have dropped by more than sixty percent in three months time.
What's next?
It's time to discuss some important topics.
First of all: the markets are not in a bear market, but it depends on the narrative that you're looking at the markets.
If you're looking at USD values, then you can conclude that the markets aren't in a bear market as we've been running up substantially.
However, when you're changing your base narrative, and you adjust to BTC as your base currency, then it's Christmas as everything is so heavily undervalued and generate massive returns for you.
Why is that and what do I mean by having low valuations?
1️⃣ - If your narrative is based on BTC valuations, then you can automatically conclude that we're still in the longest bear market for altcoins. This also translates towards the current sentiment, which is still super bad as retail isn't interested. As an example; Chainlink has been in a bear market for 3.5 years. Ethereum has been in a bear market for 2.5 years.
2️⃣ - BTC valuations are more important than USD valuations, as they provide a clearer picture. For instance; Chainlink has been going up from $6 to $12, but if Bitcoin ran up from $25,000 to $70,000, you would have been better off by holding Bitcoin in that period, as that generates a higher ROI.
In that aspect, we've just witnessed two big events and, slowly, but surely, you can see that the rotation has started towards altcoins.
I'll discuss some important topics for this.
- First of all, the Bitcoin Spot ETF hype has gone away, it has been taking the spotlight, but it has ultimately had its spotlight and it vanished away, however, the liquidity will still be provided through the ETF in the upcoming years.
- Secondly, the Bitcoin halving has finished, which is usually the biggest event in the history of Bitcoin, after which the spotlight starts to go away towards altcoins. You might say that it's not happening, but actually, as ETH is breaking through 0.05 BTC and hit the highest price level in 3 weeks, it means that the interest is shifting away.
Through this, a final argument is that I think this cycle is going to last longer than the previous cycle for multiple reasons.
- More liquidity is needed to get the markets going. The higher we go, the larger the market capitalization, the heavier the liquidity needed to make the markets go up or down. In that aspect, volatility is likely going away slowly but surely, but this also means that Bitcoin is likely going into a longer cycle.
- Additionally, bear markets tend to be longer than previous cycles, through which it's likely to expect that bull markets are going to be longer too. In 2016/2017 Ethereum has been in a bear market for 9 months, bull was 7 months after. After that, 2 year bear market, 2 year bull market. Right now: almost 3 years bear market and likely 3 or more bull years to come afterwards. Narratives are getting larger, so a heavier impact is on the horizon.
Now, what does that mean? Well, if you're looking at the BTC valuations of altcoins, then we're getting a discount of 70% on these since January. The sentiment is on the ground, through which this is the period where you want to step into those altcoins, especially when Ethereum starts to reverse and is likely going to have a very positive month in May.
Buy those altcoins and hold them. You'll be fine.
