Recently, the price of BTC has been jumping up and down like a monkey market, the trading volume is becoming increasingly scarce, and the liquidity is becoming more and more worrying. Except for the slightly active period from 1 to 4 in the morning, the market is as quiet as the weekend at other times.
The market goes down when it is smashed, and it goes up when it is pulled up, but the narrative of BTC itself has not changed. It is more about the fluctuation of investor sentiment. In the context of unchanged narrative, it is difficult for the price to fluctuate significantly. At present, early profit chips are not in a hurry to leave the market, and the loss-making BTC is also limited to leave the market. The purchasing power can be seen from the spot ETF data. It is far different.
Most investors have low trading sentiment. It can be seen from the daily trading volume of tradingview and the transfer-in and transfer-out data of the exchange in the past week that liquidity has dropped to the lowest point in the past six months, even worse than some weekends at the beginning of the year.
Under such low liquidity, it is unrealistic to expect a big leap in prices. The current trading sentiment of users is even worse than that in November and December last year when the ETF was not passed. This is not just the buying data, the selling data is also sluggish.
However, judging from the detailed data, there is something new today. In the past 24 hours, nearly 160,000 BTC suddenly accumulated at the $64,000 position. These BTC have no direct connection with the exchange, and 🐳qun scab👀玮: 1983211157 did not flow in or out through the exchange. After verification, the number of BTC in the US government and Mentougou has not changed. Although the miners' positions have decreased, they are only a few hundred.
It has been mentioned many times before that when the single price BTC stock exceeds 1.2 million, it often means a direction choice. The last time was at the end of February and the beginning of March, it rose sharply due to the release of MSTR and Coinbase's financial reports. Today, although the BTC stock at $64,000 and $66,000 is less than 500,000, the financial reports of these two companies will be released next week.
As the US stock market rebounded, MSTR and COIN performed well, contrary to the trend of BTC, showing the influence of the earnings season. As long as the earnings expectations are good, the price trend is usually not too bad.
Although the BTC inventory at $64,000 has begun to rise, it has not yet broken the $65,000 support level. The $64,000 and $66,000 levels may form a response. However, it is difficult to predict whether this sudden large amount of chips will leave the market in a short period of time.
Therefore, I maintain my previous view: tomorrow is the weekend, liquidity will further decline, and the market will enter a stage of relying on the weather.BTC spot ETF transactions are usually the worst on Fridays, and spot ETF purchasing power data reflects the sentiment of US investors. At present, although there is not much selling pressure transferred into the exchange in the last 24 hours, only more than 5,000 BTC, the purchasing power is extremely low, with only transfers in but no transfers out. Perhaps it will get better around 3 or 4 in the morning.
As for the altcoin bull market, it has actually come. The current Bitcoin price is 64,000, with a market value of 1.2 trillion, accounting for 53%, and the scale of altcoins has reached more than 1 trillion. Compared with 20 years, when Bitcoin was 11,000, the market value was 258 billion, accounting for 58%, and the market value of altcoins was only 183.2 billion.
Therefore, when Bitcoin rushed to 60,000 in 20 years, it increased by 6 times; and the total market value of altcoins also increased by 6 times to the trillion level. Therefore, the total scale of the current altcoin market, especially various L2 and new narratives, has reached the high point of the last bull market.
