The economy has slowed down significantly, but inflation has rebounded. After the data was released, the market postponed the time for the Fed's first interest rate cut to December. The current probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in June is more than 80%. The current situation is very contradictory and complicated. The data reveals to us that the US GDP has begun to decline, but inflation has risen. Will the Fed protect GDP or inflation? ​Based on the current data, Powell cannot make up his mind. I think more data is needed.

Then the core PCE inflation data for March to be released at 8:30 tonight is very important (expected to be 2.7%, the previous value is 2.8%). I hope it will meet expectations. US economic growth has slowed down significantly. The last hurdle on the road to interest rate cuts is that inflation will continue to decline. This is the most ideal state. Brother Ming believes that tonight's inflation data is likely to meet expectations. With the background of the US economic slowdown, the Fed's interest rate meeting next Thursday may not be so hawkish. Moreover, in the US election in November, according to the past routine, no matter who is elected in the end, they will regard improving the economy as the first priority, and loosening the money supply is the ultimate goal. This year's suppression and then rise will not change the final large cycle pattern. Don't worry!