There is no definite answer to the duration of the bull market, because it is affected by many factors, such as market sentiment, policy supervision, technological innovation, supply and demand, etc. However, we can refer to historical data and analyze the cyclical changes of cryptocurrencies to make a rough prediction of future trends.
The bull-bear cycle of cryptocurrencies is about a four-year cycle, which coincides with the halving cycle of Bitcoin. For example, 2013, 2017, and 2021 were all halving years for Bitcoin, and also bull years for cryptocurrencies. In these years, the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have experienced explosive growth, creating historical highs. In the year after the halving, such as 2014, 2018, and 2022, the prices of cryptocurrencies have experienced a sharp correction and entered a bear market. In these years, the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have fallen sharply, breaking through historical lows.
Bitcoin halving cycle: Historical data shows that Bitcoin's block reward halving every four years tends to coincide with a bull market cycle. Based on the information you provide, 518 to 546 days after the next halving (i.e. mid-September or mid-October 2025) is seen by some analysts as a possible bull market peak.
Market Analysis Report: As the Grayscale report points out, as of March 2024, the cryptocurrency market is considered to be in the middle of the current bull market, supported by fundamental and technical factors.
Based on the above information, although there is no exact date, the following inferences can be drawn:
Historical Pattern: Based on the assumption that historical halving cycles are associated with bull markets, the bull market may last at least until around September-October 2025, which is an assumption based on market performance after past halvings.
Mid-term judgment: The Grayscale report believes that the market is in the mid-term of a bull market, which means that the bull market may continue for some time from the time the report is released (March 2024).
Cyclical fluctuations: Given that the crypto market has historically been volatile, price adjustments and short-term bear market phases may occur even during a bull market, but this does not mean the end of the entire bull market cycle.
Uncertainty: All forecasts are subject to uncertainty, and the cryptocurrency market in particular is more susceptible to unexpected events due to its emerging nature and highly speculative nature.
In summary, it is difficult to accurately predict when the bull market in the cryptocurrency market will end, but based on historical patterns, analyst opinions and current market conditions, it can be inferred that the bull market may last until mid-2025 or even longer. However, investors should pay close attention to market dynamics, regulatory changes, technological developments and other factors, flexibly adjust investment strategies, and be aware that the market may turn at any time. Actual investment decisions should be made based on personal risk tolerance, investment goals and in-depth market analysis.
