The first article that elaborates on the idea of contract trading mainly talks about the macro-economy and the judgment of the market trend, and makes the trend of a currency under the big trend. Due to how penetrating the content is, it is impossible to move it to the square. It is clearer in my push.
Preface: The first article mainly focuses on macroeconomic cycles and project cycles. These require a systematic trading system and constant revision. This can be reviewed and reviewed in a cycle to have a good winning rate. It can be regarded as a systematic martial arts. Sometimes effective moves are needed to deal with the enemy. Mechanization can capture faster. According to experience, it can greatly increase efficiency and timeliness. Of course, the strategies in this article can also be used manually.
1: Rate arbitrage.
Rate arbitrage has actually existed for a long time, but it was written by Xia Liuyue in the CC contract that made it more well-known in the industry. I will not go into details here. In a word, it is profitable to open an order at the rate settlement node to earn the rate when the rate difference is large. For details, please refer to Liuyue's article.
I have a slightly different understanding of her (his) article: the premise for long traders to pay funding fees to short traders is the price difference between the contract and spot prices.
This method is actually very automated and easy to implement, as shown in the figure. There are certain risks here. If the long orders are charged at 12 o'clock, and the price drops sharply after 12 o'clock, whether it is automatic or manual, the rate cannot offset the drop, and you will suffer losses.
Here, the rate difference is large enough to cover the speed of decline, so you can make a profit. Coinglass has the rates of various coins and platforms. Many strategies will choose a rate of more than 2% for arbitrage, which will reduce the risk. Yesterday, I took advantage of this in $BNT and made a profit of more than $900. This was posted in some groups.
Careful friends will ask, why do you open it at 0.5 seconds, aren't you a machine, why does it take so long, or why do you open it after 12 o'clock. Let me answer the second question first. For $BNT with negative fees, people who eat the fees will withdraw their orders, and the same applies to those who enter first and later. The first question is mainly about risk control. If you rely solely on the 2% fee to cover the decline, there will still be risks. What if the monster coin plummets? I have made the fluctuation of positions and volume in the risk control. It is also to collect data to predict the speed of the subsequent decline as much as possible, and then choose to open an order after comparing it with the fee. There is also time selection here. There are many similar risk control strategies, and you can study them by yourself.
2. Arbitrage on exchange fee differences.
This is very simple. Coinglass still has the fee rates of major exchanges. An An and Ou Ou may have different fee rates and settlement times. You can open orders at the two exchanges and take the fee difference. The risk control here will also use the previous ones. I have already used the middle-office (modular) logic when it comes to contract robots. I will just mention this. It is not difficult to understand the second one if you understand the first one.
3: Open an order based on the reminder of on-chain behavior.
This is another example I posted on Twitter before, and that is cc. All the operations of cc have been written in previous tweets, and there is no hindsight, all of them are written first and then published. Although the use of on-chain behavior here is not very typical, it is a factor. However, after all, it is a 10x order in one night that I haven't seen in many years, so let me talk about it.
Many people like to monitor the wallets of big players, or see how many coins xx mentioned in the exchange, including the very popular#DWF This market maker brought the monster coin. That's all. Many people say that xx will crash the market when it withdraws money from the exchange.
So, I would like to ask, monitoring wallets is not a very complicated thing, have you made money? Is it true that the exchange must be dumping the market when withdrawing coins?#DWF When I started to withdraw money, the price was always pulled up. Now I know to monitor the wallet. I can mess around with it, and there are both pull and loss. How can I find useful information from this information?
1. Based on DWF’s basic public wallets, I crawled all the wallets that had transactions with him, and currently marked more than 40.
2. I based my analysis on the coins from market makers and recent$YGG
Analyze the on-chain behavior of profit-makers in the early stages of the rise of similar coins, analyze the wallets that may be insider trading or have time-limited pre-behavior, select profitable wallets for monitoring, abstract the rules, and use other market makers in a similar way. After all, DWF is very high-profile and there are traces to follow.
This is the idea. I have my own computer room for cross-border e-commerce and have a certain amount of computing power to do this. We also have a certain amount of technical accumulation in big data. If you are interested, you can try this.
4. Open an order based on the message.
I opened a lot of short-term contracts some time ago, but later I said that I would not open short-term contracts anymore. On the one hand, short-term trading has a lot to do with news, and secondly, there are many KOLs who shout orders through short-term trading, and they do not make the coin rise by any means, but many of them are liquidity provided by fans. In my trading system, I prefer systematic thinking and expand benefits in the cycle.
Short-term contracts and high-frequency orders can also contribute more commissions to the exchange, which is a win-win situation (the more orders, the faster the return). Many people want to get the wealth code every day, but from my personal point of view, the benefits of the cycle will be greater. It is undeniable that many short-term experts also have a high price-earnings ratio.
Without further ado, let me give you an example.
Stars Arena was hacked and suffered a DDOS attack. The message robot detected bad news, so I opened an order manually. Although this message robot is my own, there are many in the world that can also achieve the same effect manually. I don't need to look at the profit of this order. The profit was higher only when it fell sharply. It was considered luck. The same type of thing also happened when the founder of Matic resigned. I also opened a short order, and the profit was not close.
Compared with the monitoring in the market, I have made some optimizations. Many of them monitor the project party's Twitter and announcements, and then place orders one step ahead. The wind direction I optimized myself is mainly a fuzzy processing, using big data to judge whether it is good or bad, and I can open orders manually or automatically.
I made a fuzzy classification of the cyclical behaviors of common projects, such as: obtaining investment, launching the mainnet, deploying multiple chains, being rugged, being hacked, etc., and automatically judged whether it was good or bad.
This is just one dimension.
This module will be matched with the previous contract positions and spot trading volume to increase the judgment criteria, and there are many more like this.
With this idea, you can monitor some influencers' Twitter and place orders based on the currency they call, how many people call this currency, and the winning rate of the upgraded currency. What's more, co-buying some internal groups of teachers who lead orders (low-level transfer information), and matching senior leaders and orders through AI is indeed a way of trading.
I personally think that short-term contracts depend on news, and long-term contracts depend on cycles. The two articles on contracts are a small introduction, not something complicated. My personal contract tools are 2-3 times more complicated than these.
