"Looking ahead to the endless frontier technology; seeing into the future, leading the new era of investment research.This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
Members’ Twitter IDs: Golden Egg Diary @jindanriji; Elk Will Not Get Lost @crypto_elk_; Forex Brother; Xibei @Asterismone;
Weekly Review
This week, from April 15 to April 22, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $66,867 and the lowest price was close to $59,600, with a fluctuation range of about 10.87%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 63,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 840,000 pieces;
64000-68000: about 900,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book maintained the growth characteristics of the U.S. economy's "mild" expansion since February, continuing the generally pessimistic description of economic activity and people's cautious optimism about the economy.
ECB board member Centeno: If we have to cut rates before the Fed, so be it.
Bank of America’s April survey of global fund managers found that concerns about the prospect of stagflation began to recede (60%, peaking at 92%) as optimism about economic growth grew;
A net 20% of investors expect global profits to improve, the highest level since August 2021.
Powell hinted at a delay in rate cuts, saying strong inflation last quarter has created new uncertainty about whether and when interest rates can be cut later this year.
Powell said: "Recent data show that inflation has not made enough progress this year; if high inflation persists, the Fed can maintain current interest rates for as long as necessary;
Data from the euro zone showed that the inflation rate fell to 2.4% from 2.6% in February, in line with the preliminary value. Inflation in the euro zone slowed across the board last month, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates in June.
ECB President Lagarde said: Unless there are major surprises, interest rates will be cut soon, and the ECB does not target exchange rates; Governing Council member Rehn: If the June assessment confirms that inflation is on target, we may lower interest rates;
Encrypted ecological news
HODL15 Capital data shows that Upbit cold wallet "Mr.100" is working hard to hoard BTC. It has purchased almost all newly mined BTC in the past three days. From April 15 to 17, it purchased 800, 600, and 400 BTC respectively.
Jamie Coutts CMT, a former Bloomberg analyst, said that by 2030, Blockchain's daily active users are conservatively estimated to be 70 million
According to Google Trends data, the search interest for BTC halving has reached 45 points, and Google predicts that it will reach 100 points by the end of this month. Research and brokerage firm Bernstein expects BTC to resume its bullish trajectory after the halving.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Long-term participants’ holding structure
On-chain chip growth and destruction
The positions of various whales
Spot selling pressure
(The following figure shows the holding structure of long-term participants)
Looking at the bull and bear cycles in history, if the proportion of long-term participants is less than 30%, the market will face the risk of a hollow structure.
This is what needs the most attention, and at present, the chip structure of long-term participants remaining in the market is still more than 52%.
As can be seen from the chart, long-term participants have recently stopped reducing their holdings.
(The following figure shows the growth and destruction of chips on the chain)
On-chain chips are still growing and being created significantly following last week.
From a long-term perspective of the market, there is often a certain degree of positive correlation with the market, especially in terms of having a positive impact on the market.
This means that the market is still relatively healthy.
(The following figure shows the position status of each whale)
The positions of the whales behaved rather strangely, with fewer purchases and some even selling.
It may be to deal with some uncertainties and hesitations around halving.
In this regard, we need to pay more attention to the overall pressure brought by the market.
(The picture below shows spot selling pressure)
From the current perspective, the spot selling pressure in the market has dropped to the middle stage, and from the perspective of the upward environment of the bull market, it is at a relatively low level.
If the current situation and expectation is a bull market, then the current selling pressure is still relatively low.
Mid-term exploration
Short-term sentiment components
US ETF address balance
BTC profit cycle
Positive sentiment on the Internet
(The figure below shows the composition of short-term sentiment)
The situation of new added forces has not yet been restored, and the overall rhythm is still in the process of reducing holdings.
This may cause liquidity shortage in the near future.
At the same time, selling by long-term participants in the market is also slowing down slightly.
Perhaps the emotions of the new participants are still being repaired, and there is still a problem of insufficient supply when gliding in this state.
(Figure below shows the balance of US ETF address)
The sell-off of US ETFs is facing a turning point.
The long-established market structure is changing, and recent market prices have been repeatedly affected by increases and decreases in US ETFs holdings.
At present, the selling pressure on ETFs has eased to some extent, and the main pressure on the market may be slightly alleviated.
(The following figure shows the BTC profit cycle)
BTC is still in a period of high profit ratio, with overall profit accounting for more than 80%, which means that the current market has a "money-making effect".
However, when the profit ratio is above 98%, the market as a whole may face pressure from profit shocks if there is no new support.
At present, the profit ratio may return to the basic level, and more incremental funds will still be needed to drive it in the future. Otherwise, the market will hover in a state of stock game and fall into the dilemma of being unable to achieve market value growth.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
The overall trading sentiment is still in a state of recovery.
If trading sentiment continues to decline, it may indicate that the enthusiasm for trading on the market is not high, and we may have to wait for a new turning point.
The market may then be in a better state.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the neutral area. The risk of derivatives is moderate.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
Last week, we mentioned that when the risk factor reaches the neutral zone, there may be a two-way liquidation of derivatives. The current market has completed the liquidation, and the risk factor has reached the safe zone at its highest. This is the first time that the risk factor has reached the safe zone since the BTC price reached 50,000 US dollars. In addition, judging from the liquidation volume, a large number of long positions have been liquidated this time, and the risk factor has reached the neutral zone. This has brought a certain amount of short squeeze space for subsequent market conditions. This week, the market is expected to have an extremely low risk of long squeeze again, and is more inclined to shock or short squeeze.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
The put ratio and option trading volume have not changed much compared with last week and are at a moderate level.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives volumes are back to low levels, which could mean the next wave of volatility won’t be long.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility has not changed much for the time being.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
Although the market has corrected, panic has not spread, and the current short-term holder cost is still around 59K. Both positive market sentiment and panic sentiment are at low levels, which leaves enough room for the market outlook.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: The overall situation is in a state of accumulated outflow, and the selling pressure is relatively low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
Although the outflow rate has slowed down and there is a small amount of inflow, the overall outflow is still in a state of accumulation.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
The second cake is also currently in an outflow accumulation state.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at the moment.
Purchasing power rating: Compared to the massive drop in global purchasing power last week, the purchasing power of stablecoins remained basically the same.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
Currently, the purchasing power of Asia and Europe has flowed out to negative values, with only a small amount of purchasing power from America remaining.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT net position remained flat overall.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 60,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 60,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000, 72,000, and 74,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60,000 and 61,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000, 72,000, and 74,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000, 72,000, and 74,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
BTC is currently in the fourth halving cycle. In the third cycle, the amplitude of the halving month in 2020 was 22%, followed by an increase of 25% in the next three months, an increase of 111% in six months, and an increase of 337% in 12 months.
At present, market institutions and capital are relatively consistent in believing that the decline caused by halving does not mean a decline in the overall trend in the long run. The main factor of this short-term decline is, on the other hand, also the main factor of long-term rise.
Expectations of lower Federal Reserve interest rates have also helped the market forward this year.
Approach every battle with caution, but at the same time try to remain relatively optimistic.
In the short term, we will focus on the US core inflation PCE data on Friday, which may show whether there will be an early interest rate cut.
On-chain long-term insights:
Currently, long-term participants still have more than 52% of their chips in the market, and they have reduced their selling recently. If it drops to 30%, the market will enter a dangerous state of hollow structure.
New chips on the chain are actively being created, which has a healthy effect on the market;
Overall, whales have not been too aggressive in making large purchases;
The market spot selling pressure has dropped to the middle stage, which is a relatively low level if a bull market is expected.
Market setting:
The overall situation is relatively healthy, and the market is moving towards stability and accumulation. Greater strength may require time to accumulate.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
New participants still show no signs of increasing their holdings, and long-term participants have somewhat slowed down their selling;
The ETF address balance has reached a reduction inflection point, and the pressure on the market may gradually ease;
BTC is still in a cycle with 80% profit share;
Trading sentiment still needs to be repaired and no turning point has appeared.
Market setting:
repair,
The ETF address balance has shown a reduction inflection point, and the pressure has been slightly relieved, but the overall trading enthusiasm still needs to be repaired.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the neutral area and the risk is moderate.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a relatively low level.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange showed an accumulated outflow state, with low selling pressure.
Global purchasing power has dropped significantly compared to last week, while the purchasing power of stablecoins has remained basically the same.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 60,000 and a willingness to sell at 70,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Market setting:
This pullback did not cause panic selling, the overall market sentiment is still neutral, and the overall purchasing power is insufficient. This week is expected to be volatile or a small amount of short squeeze, and the probability of an extreme downward break below the cost line of short-term holders is very low.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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