#比特币减半 #大盘走势 $BTC The trend and judgment are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

Market summary:

Against the backdrop of the increasingly complex situation in the Middle East and the postponement of the US interest rate cut, Bitcoin ushered in its fourth halving on April 20. From 6.25 coins produced every 10 minutes, it was reduced to 3.125 coins, and the annual output was reduced from 328,000 coins to 164,000 coins. This is a far-reaching halving. As a result, Bitcoin has become the only major asset with an annual inflation rate below 1%, with an annual inflation rate of only 0.8%, which is also far lower than the 2% of gold, opening a new chapter in the Bitcoin bull market.

Although the absolute number of production cuts has decreased significantly compared to four years ago, the number of BTC on centralized exchanges that determine BTC's short-term pricing power has decreased from 3.06 million in the previous cycle to 2.29 million, resulting in an annual production cut accounting for 7% of short-term liquidity, which has not decreased proportionally compared to 10% in the previous cycle. Considering that the proportion of long-term holders has increased by 14% compared with four years ago, the deflationary impact of market supply caused by this halving is still very large. The total reduction in production in four years accounts for 28% of short-term liquidity. Considering that the number of coins held by centralized exchanges will continue to decline, this figure can actually exceed 30%. I believe that the law of ushering in a super bull market within 18 months after the halving will still reappear.

Back to last week, Bitcoin continued to adjust, falling below 60,000 to 59,600 US dollars, and reaching a high of 66,867 US dollars. It is currently fluctuating around 64,000 US dollars, with an overall amplitude of 11%. This is basically a microcosm of the past four weeks: repeated fluctuations between 60,000 and 70,000. It shows that after Bitcoin quickly created a new historical high, the adjustment momentum has not been fully digested.

Calculated at the lowest point of 60,775, BTC has dropped 19.2% from the historical high of 73,777, which is very close to the 21.2% drop from 48,000 US dollars to 38,000 US dollars on the day the ETF was passed. We believe that Bitcoin has strong support around 58,000 US dollars, and the deep shock may be coming to an end