5 stages of the bull-bear cycle

I divide the bull-bear cycle into 5 stages:

Dead silence - recovery - madness - strangulation - extinction

Dead silence is the terminal stage of the "slow bear",

Recovery is the "fast bull" stage,

Madness is the "mad bull" stage,

Strangulation is the "mad bear" stage,

Eradication is the "slow bear" stage.

Based on this, I'm afraid everyone knows that we have to buy in the "dead silence" stage and sell in the "mad" stage. The problem is that most retail investors in the market enter the market in the "recovery" stage, increase their positions in the "mad bull" stage, and sell their positions in the "extinction" stage.

It is the gambling-style trading behavior of retail gamblers that has created the irrational prosperity of the bull market, which is also the reason why sober traders can make a lot of money. In any industry, insiders make money from outsiders, especially in the currency circle.

Therefore, figuring out which stage the current market is in is the key to successful investment. Among these five stages, "strangulation" and "destruction" are not very important to us for two reasons:

1. These two stages are empty positions,

2. A bear market cannot have a V-shaped reversal