Bitcoin will usher in its fourth round of halving tomorrow morning, which is a major event for the entire B circle.
However, the market has just experienced a big drop recently, and it has not been able to go up in the past few days, which makes many people worry that there will be a big drop after the halving. Many people even say that there will be no market this year. Is this really the case?
First of all, we need to know that the halving of Bitcoin means that the mining cost of Bitcoin miners has doubled, and the daily mining output has been halved, so Bitcoin will be mined less and less and become more and more scarce, which is a positive event.
Miners are not a small group, the market value of Bitcoin in circle B accounts for 50-60%. The Bitcoin held by the miners accounts for a very large proportion of this 50-60%, and the Bitcoin miners group belongs to the main force of Bitcoin.
There is a cost for mining Bitcoin with mining machines. Previously, the cost of Bitcoin mining machines was between 15,000 and 20,000. This halving means that the cost will double.
Many people want to wait for Bitcoin to drop to 40,000, 30,000, or 20,000 before buying it. However, Bitcoin miners have spent hundreds of billions of dollars to do this. Will they dump the market to attract retail investors even if they themselves suffer losses?
The above is an analysis of the fundamentals. Let’s take a look at the market and analyze it from a technical perspective.
Yesterday we analyzed the 3-day trend of Bitcoin. Today we will look at the daily line and look for clues between the bulls and bears at a smaller level.
It can be seen that the three consecutive days of decline from April 11 to 13 are gradually increasing in volume, indicating that the air force is strong.
However, the decline in the past two days has begun to shrink, and the extent of breaking the previous low has begun to weaken, indicating that the air force power is weakening.
The recent trend over the past month has formed a "slightly downward sloping parallel channel", and the market has not fallen below the lower edge of the channel in large volume, indicating that the support below is effective.
Yesterday, a positive line was closed, forming a “piercing pattern” near the support, indicating that bulls have begun to intervene.
From the above clues, it can be seen that the short-selling force is weakening and the long-selling force is beginning to intervene.
We must analyze the market, and we cannot assume that the market will continue to rise and chase the rise because it has risen. We cannot assume that the market will continue to fall and think that there is a bottomless pit below because it has fallen.
If this is the way of operation, how can you make money? If you cannot identify the stop-loss signal and the buying opportunity, it is impossible to buy at the best position, so if you want to get the so-called dozens of times of profit, you can only realize it in your dreams at night.
If you cannot identify the bottom, it means you cannot identify the top either. Then if you chase after the market goes up, the risk will be very high. Taking huge risks to earn small money may not be worth it.
But we in the May Circle are very lucky, because we have my master’s more than 9 years of experience in the cryptocurrency circle to protect us and lead us forward.
We are reminded in the group when major market trends are about to occur, and through professional trend analysis and in-depth analysis of multiple dimensions including "fundamentals, technical aspects, capital aspects, news aspects, and policies aspects", we are given strategies and confidence.
In the last bull market, before the big drop on May 19, 2021, we were reminded of the risks, which allowed us to liquidate our positions and escape the market, thus avoiding the entire bear market in 2022.
In 2022, when everyone is very confused about the future, it reminds us that the bear market has bottomed out, and Bitcoin is at $15,487, which is the bottom, and then gives us a layout reminder.
And at the end of 2022, we have already given us an in-depth analysis of the market trends in 2023, so we can make arrangements in advance to seize the entire 2023 market.
Will this round of decline continue to fall? Or is it an opportunity? How should we arrange our investment next? Should we invest in batches or confirm the next trend and invest heavily?
Every operation is crucial. Only by mastering the strategy and having a clear direction for the future can we minimize risks and maximize returns.
When we have a clear understanding of the current and future market trends, we will be able to seize every wave of opportunities in the future. The gap in operations will lead to huge differences in the final results.
