First halving: November 28, 2012
Bitcoin block number halved: 210,000
Block reward: 50 BTC to 25 BTC
Bitcoin price on the day of halving: $12.3 per coin
Price peak during this cycle: $1,175 per coin
Maximum price increase during this cycle: 9552.85%
Second halving: July 9, 2016
Bitcoin block number halved: 420,000
Block reward: 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC
Bitcoin price on the day of halving: $648.1 /coin
Price peak in this cycle: $19,800/coin
Maximum price increase in this cycle: 3055.08%
Third halving: May 2020
Bitcoin blocks where halving occurs: 630,000
Block reward: 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC
Bitcoin price on the day of halving: $8,560.6/coin
Price peak in this cycle: $67,775.3/coin
Maximum price increase in this cycle: 791.71%
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Is there a risk in Bitcoin halving?
While Bitcoin halving is generally seen as a positive event, there are inherent risks, especially in the short term. The expectation of halving may trigger speculative market behavior and lead to increased volatility. It is worth noting that if market expectations are not met, prices may also experience temporary adjustments.
There is a historical correlation between halving events and Bitcoin prices. For example, Bitcoin prices rose sharply about six months after the halving dates in 2012, 2017, and 2020. Despite this correlation, it is important to remember that correlation does not imply causation, history does not necessarily repeat itself, and various factors such as market sentiment, adoption trends, and macroeconomic conditions can influence price movements.
If there is widespread expectation that the value of Bitcoin will surge immediately after the 2024 halving, then investors may buy Bitcoin before the halving event, thereby driving up the current price rather than the price after the halving, potentially triggering a price action of buying the expectation and selling the fact. Therefore, while the theoretical decline in the rate at which new Bitcoins enter the market indicates increased scarcity, which in principle could stimulate demand and potentially raise prices, it is not an independent factor that can reliably predict or trigger a significant increase in the value of Bitcoin.