First, recharge the brothers' faith:

I just reviewed the trend of Bitcoin before and after the last halving (May 11, 2020) and found that Bitcoin fluctuated greatly in the few days before the halving on May 11, 2020, with a drop of about 20% in a few days. This time, it also dropped by about 18%. However, three days after the last halving, Bitcoin recovered all the losses before the halving.

Whether the decline before Bitcoin halving this time was due to the conflict between small countries outside that wiped out the gains, or the realization of the Bitcoin halving hype expectations, or the previous ETF factors that pushed up the price of the currency, this time took the opportunity to take profits and dump the market.

In short, a week before the Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin did fall, with the largest drop of about 18%, which is similar to the drop before the previous halving. This is also in line with the normal correction space of the Bitcoin bull market.

Halving is a real positive. After the halving, the price of Bitcoin will probably rise directly in a short period of time and return to above 70,000, similar to the last halving, after which it recovered all the losses before the halving, and then oscillated in a range for a long time (looking for a sword on a boat) and then took off.

The logic of the rise is as follows:

1. There is still an expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut in the second half of the year

2. Hong Kong has approved the Bitcoin ETF. Currently, the United States and China have also approved it. I believe that more countries will approve Bitcoin ETFs in the future. ETFs push up Bitcoin prices through the inflow of funds into the cryptocurrency market.

3. After the halving, the mining cost of miners increases, and the supply and demand relationship changes. There are only a few times each year when the price can fall below the shutdown price of Bitcoin, except for black swans!

Let's talk about the trading ideas for the next period of time:

The market is still in the mid-term stage of the bull market. This is just a correction. Don't lose confidence when the market falls. There is no such thing as a market that only rises and never falls, and there is no such thing as a market that only falls and never rises. The market maker is not a philanthropist and has no obligation to keep pulling up the market to give everyone money. Consolidation is very necessary, so a correction during an uptrend is inevitable.

It has been a whole week since Bitcoin pulled back last week. At noon on the 9th, I made a prediction in the group and waited for the daily line to show a top and go sideways to start laying out short orders and reducing or clearing spot positions. Bitcoin started to fall at 8 pm on the 12th. I was having so much fun traveling that I forgot to remind everyone, and I didn't take advantage of the wave in time, so I lost a lot of profits.

Judging from the current market, this is a rebound after the 4th wave of decline in the 4-hour chart. Even if the price can fall below the lowest level of 5.96 last night and continue to hit a new low in the short term, the price will eventually end its decline and stabilize and rebound until it reaches a new high.

If you want the price to continue to fall, you must cooperate with the news and then the institutions must dump the market. Otherwise, normal big investors have higher awareness than ordinary retail investors and they will not sell. If it continues to fall below 60,000, this is the range where many small institutions will get on board, so don’t be afraid, just take it in batches. The big cake point was posted in the group a few days ago, you can climb up by yourself.

In the middle of the bull market, it is easier for Bitcoin to stop falling and stabilize and then set a new high than for most of the copycat stocks to set new highs. Therefore, during this period of time when Bitcoin fell and stabilized and then broke through 7.38 and set a new high and rose strongly, try to focus on Bitcoin trading and do not buy the copycat stocks at the bottom.

Seeing that most altcoins have fallen, I feel that many of the previously popular altcoins have fallen sharply, so I am relatively cheap and buy altcoins at a low price, but you will find that most altcoins cannot outperform the growth of Bitcoin.

Because market funds are limited, big funds and ETFs will only buy big coins. Even if a small amount of market funds overflow to altcoins, they can only pull up a limited number of altcoins. Don't think that you can buy ten or even dozens of times more coins if you are a rare talent.

Taking myself as an example, after entering the circle for so long, I seem to remember that there are only 5 altcoins that have made more than 10 times the return (not counting those that were sold at a high price). The other 4 were private placements of coins when I was doing ICO investment in 2017. So what if it is 10 times? I dare not hold a large position in the altcoins, and I cannot hold on to it even if it increases several times. This has something to do with personal character, so now I’m going to have fun with the big pie!

Pancakes are like wives, you must give them enough love; copycats are like wild flowers, you must get them for free if you can, and withdraw from them in time without being greedy, or you will end up being deeply trapped in them!

There are also hot altcoins that have risen sharply in the early stage, but they may not necessarily become hot spots when Bitcoin rises next time. After all, there are too many new coins and new hot spots in the currency circle every day. In fact, the growth of most altcoins may not be higher than that of Bitcoin.

Only after the big cake has risen to a new high for a considerable period of time and space, and the big cake has clearly risen and fallen back and cannot rise any more, will the hot money be transferred to the copycat market, to pull up some hot copycat markets, and then the profit funds of the big cake market will follow suit.

So if it continues to fall, Bitcoin is the first choice, just like last year when Bitcoin fell from more than 30,000 to more than 20,000, I deduced that everyone should buy Bitcoin, and it is the same now, buy in batches when it falls. Only by washing out the long leverage and unidentified chips, the weight of takeoff will be light and higher. Many times, if you think from the perspective of the banker, everything is so logical. Let us look forward to the halving of Bitcoin tomorrow with joy! #比特币减半 #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #BTC趋势预估 #BTC大饼减半，