Binance Launchpool: BNB or FDUSD? How to choose between long-term and short-term strategies?
Under the short-term strategy, FDUSD has a higher rate of return and risk resistance; BNB mining is suitable for users who hold for a long time and do not make short-term transactions.
In the recent Binance new coin mining, only BNB and FDUSD can be used to participate. What is the difference in the rate of return between the two? Which is better, the long-term or short-term holding strategy?
Analyze the data of the past 12 periods to see the profit and loss situation under different strategies.
The short-term strategy refers to buying FDUSD/BNB at the beginning of the new coin mining and selling it at the end of the mining. The net profit or loss is the mining income minus the price difference before and after mining.
FDUSD data analysis
The figure below shows the relevant data of FDUSD in the past twelve periods, including the price changes before and after "Binance announced the new coin mining", the price changes at the beginning and end of the "new coin mining activity", and the corresponding rate of return and short-term strategy income.
12-period data deciphers Binance Launchpool: BNB or FDUSD? How to choose between long-term and short-term strategies?
After Launchpool was issued, the increase in FDUSD was relatively consistent, with an average of 0.3%;
During the period from the beginning to the end of mining, the decline in FDUSD was quite different, with an average of -0.4%. At the same time, it means that the discount rate of FDUSD is also relatively stable, and the long-term price difference is not large;
Similarly, the annualized yield of each period is also quite different, and the relative size between each period is basically the same as the BNB mining pool;
Using the holding profit and loss to superimpose the absolute return of mining, the absolute return under the short-term strategy, and then converting it into an annualized yield, the corresponding average annualized rate is 67%, and there is no negative value, that is, temporary purchases also have higher returns;
In addition, in the SAGA new coin mining period, FDUSD issued more than 1.1 billion US dollars, but the yield did not decline. Whether it can be maintained requires multiple periods of verification.
BNB data comparison
The statistical object is changed to BNB mining pool, and all statistical calibers remain unchanged. The specific data are shown in the following table.
12-period data deciphers Binance Launchpool: BNB or FDUSD? How to choose long-term and short-term strategies?
New coin mining has a significant boosting effect on BNB prices, with greater volatility;
Correspondingly, BNB price fluctuations before and after mining are also greater, and are most likely negative, with only 4 of the 12 periods being significantly positive. This means that if you buy BNB before mining and hold it until maturity, you will most likely have to endure a certain price drop;
The average mining yield of BNB is 136%, which is basically lower than the FDUSD mining pool (average 157%) before the issuance of FDUSD;
BNB's short-term mining strategy is extremely volatile, and the average annualized yield is almost the same as FDUSD, at 66% and 67% respectively, but it should be noted that it is mainly supported by the increase in BNB in the two rounds of NFP and AEVO (the unit price of BNB has increased by more than 40 USDT).
Conclusion
If I want to buy temporarily and exit after mining, is FDUSD or BNB better?
For users who only want to obtain the mining income of new coins, the income of the two is close, but FDUSD is more stable, and for users with neutral strategies, there is no need to hedge BNB, and the yield is actually higher.
Therefore, FDUSD is a better choice for short-term strategies.
For long-term holders, which one is better?
Based on the data of the past 12 periods, FDUSD is only 15.4% higher than BNB in annualized yield. This means that for users, if they believe that BNB can still rise by 15.4% on the current basis, then BNB's advantage is more obvious.
However, the above conclusion is from the perspective of pure currency holding. In fact, there are still operations such as mortgaging FDUSD to borrow ETH and other assets, conducting on-chain mining activities during the window period, and transferring back during the mining period. Therefore, it is necessary to make decisions based on the specific situation of the user.
How long is the mining window period?
From the start of ACE mining to the end of SAGA, there are a total of 118 days, while the mining period is 64 days and the window period is 54 days. Therefore, the average interval between each period is only 4.9 days.
So what is the yield of not participating in the mining strategy by buying BNB/FDUSD at the bottom after the mining is completed and selling it after the announcement?
For BNB, the absolute yield of the above operations is 2.44%, which is 1.8% higher than the absolute yield of mining. Calculated according to the 4.9-day window period, the annualized yield is 181.7%. However, reusing this strategy requires considering the risk of BNB falling from a high level;
For FDUSD, the yield of this operation is 0.3%, which is much lower than the 1.3% of mining income
