Title: Evaluating Risks in Ethena's Synthetic Dollar Protocol: Insights from CryptoQuant

According to a recent report by CryptoPotato, Ethena, a synthetic dollar protocol built on Ethereum, has introduced the stablecoin USDe, aiming to provide a censorship-resistant and scalable form of digital currency pegged to the US dollar. However, on April 16, CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics firm, highlighted potential risks associated with this new stablecoin, which has rapidly grown to a market capitalization exceeding $2 billion in a relatively short period since its launch.

USDe, backed by crypto assets such as ETH and BTC, maintains its peg through delta hedging using short positions on centralized exchanges. To mint USDe, users deposit BTC, ETH, staked Ether (stETH), or USDT into the protocol, which then opens equivalent short perpetual positions with no expiration date. Nonetheless, the stability of USDe faces challenges, particularly from "funding risks," which arise when negative funding rates must be paid due to an imbalance between short and long positions.

CryptoQuant's analysis reveals that Ethena's current reserve fund of $32.7 million is sufficient to cover extremely negative funding rates as long as USDe's market cap remains below $4 billion (currently at $2.35 billion). However, as the market capitalization of USDe grows, so do the funding payments, necessitating a larger reserve fund to handle periods of significantly negative funding rates safely. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, suggests that if USDe's market cap reaches $5 or $10 billion, the reserve fund would need to increase to $40 to $100 million accordingly.

Moreover, the report emphasizes the importance of Ethena's "keep rate," which determines the portion of yield directed to reserves. This factor is critical for growing reserves in tandem with USDe's market cap to withstand bear market conditions effectively

Given the history of algorithmic stablecoins and the cautionary tale of the Terra/Luna ecosystem's rise and fall in 2022, market participants are understandably cautious