To understand the deceptiveness of logic, let me tell you a story first: from "Lu Shi Chun Qiu·Li Wei"

The story tells the story of a man named Deng Xi (said to be the originator of lawyers in history) who taught people to fight lawsuits during the Spring and Autumn Period.

There was a rich man's father in Zheng who accidentally fell into the river and drowned. He was fished out by a fisherman. The fisherman asked the rich man to sell his body at a very high price. The rich man was very dissatisfied and went to Deng Xi to seek a solution. Deng Xi told him: "Don't worry, who else can he sell to besides you?" The rich man acted according to his plan.

After a few days, the fisherman became anxious. The body was rotting and smelly. He also went to Deng Xi for advice. Deng Xi told him: "Don't worry, where else can he go but to buy from you?"

In the end, the body rotted on the roadside, causing a very bad social impact.

From a logical point of view, both statements are correct, but why do they lead to very bad results?

This illustrates a problem, logic serves consciousness.

The philosopher Osho made an analogy: "Logic is actually a prostitute, serving whoever gives you money." Although it doesn't sound very good, it makes sense.

In fact, if you think about it, when we do anything, we actually first have an idea (consciousness), and then start to match it with a bunch of logic, or excuses. So logic is actually not important, it only serves consciousness.

What I want to illustrate by saying this is that the logic of various so-called analysts, commentators, and experts in the news is not necessarily true facts, but is just a by-product of their thoughts.

You will find that they have a high level of "hindsight". BTC has risen today. They will find a bunch of logic and reasons to make a bunch of explanations for today's surge (why US interest rate hike expectations are lowered, what European CPI inflation is increasing, what European The exit from QE may be expected to be brought forward, and ETF will be adopted soon...). Friends who don’t understand this principle are likely to study these logics carefully, but you will find that these logics can only be explained afterwards and cannot be used to predict the market. These experts will also make predictions, but most of them are inaccurate, even if they are accurate. , is also a probability, it’s just a guess right occasionally, because the next prediction will be invalid.

Dennis from "The Turtle Trading Rules" knows this truth. He has a principle when selecting excellent traders, that is, if the trader has no independent opinion and follows the advice of a broker or analyst and changes his mind, then he will immediately change his mind. Fired from the trading team.

There is another danger of logic, that is, if you believe in logic too much, logic will strengthen itself in trading, and you will become stubborn in trading. Your logic supports you to do long, but when the market starts to fall, you will move out of your own. Logic, and then check it, it feels correct, and then you blindly insist on it, and even increase your position against the trend, which eventually leads to bigger and bigger losses. By the time you have to doubt your logic, the losses are already huge.

Therefore, logic is not important, because it takes time to analyze logic, and you need to check whether the logic is correct. Don't follow other people's suggestions. Sticking to your own trading system is the way to go. You don't even need to trade logically. Enter the market when a signal appears.