A recent analysis report released by crypto asset exchange Bybit pointed out that if user demand for BTC remains at the same level, there may be a shortage of BTC on exchanges by the end of 2024.
The report predicts that if the current withdrawal rate continues (currently around 7,000 BTC per day), the BTC reserve could be completely depleted within the next nine months.
This shortage prediction is closely tied to the 2024 Bitcoin halving event, which will cut the amount of Bitcoin produced per block in half.
“The rapid depletion of BTC reserves is reminding the market to prepare for a possible liquidity crisis,” said Alex Greene, senior analyst at Blockchain Insights.
“As reserves decrease, the market’s ability to absorb large sell orders without affecting prices decreases.”
According to Bybit’s report, institutional investors have significantly increased their BTC investments following the recent approval of a spot BTC ETF by U.S. regulators, driving growth in BTC demand against the backdrop of a decreasing supply.
“The surge in institutional interest has significantly increased demand for BTC. This increase could exacerbate the phenomenon of BTC shortage and push prices higher after the halving,” Greene noted.
The nine new ETFs are buying BTC at a rate of approximately $500 million per day, which is equivalent to withdrawing approximately 7,142 BTC from exchange reserves every day.
Meanwhile, there are only about 2 million BTC left in the reserves of centralized exchanges.
Bybit warned that if demand remains high after the daily mining supply is halved to 450 BTC, exchange supply could disappear by early next year.
The next halving will reduce the mining reward per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, further limiting the new BTC supply entering the market.
This programmed slashing simulates scarcity of resources, similar to the scarcity of precious metals, and is intended to control inflation and increase the value of BTC.
Miners will face reduced rewards and higher production costs, which will likely reduce the frequency with which BTC is sold immediately after it is generated.
A reduction in miner sales will make BTC scarce on public exchanges, further pushing up prices.
“Miners are adapting to increasing costs and decreasing returns,” said Maria Xu, a crypto asset market strategist.
“Many miners may sell part of their reserves before the halving to maintain operations, which may temporarily increase the BTC supply, but the long-term decline in supply after the halving is certain.”
Bybit’s analysis shows that the tightening of BTC supply is a critical and pressing issue with significant implications for BTC pricing and investment strategies.
However, the exchange remains optimistic about the coming months and believes that the falling supply could exacerbate the fear of missing out (FOMO) among new investors, which could drive BTC’s price to unprecedented levels.
