From the perspective of the empirical cycle: "The positive effect of the halving of Bitcoin is negative", this sentence has always been true. The market is correcting, and the altcoins are falling. Don't forget the niche track that is hyped every year: Fan Coin!
The first two cycles are the same (halving and negative decline), and a new round of market conditions will begin after the halving.
Of course, almost all the market conditions so far are centered around interest rate cuts (new highs in gold, new highs in US stocks, new highs in cryptocurrencies, etc.).
April is an unstable time for halving, and the market is likely to start to pick up or rebound in May.
In June, the European Central Bank took the lead in starting a monetary easing cycle, and the Federal Reserve will take over the loosening of monetary policy later.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last week showed: "Almost all participants believe that it is appropriate to cut interest rates this year; the Federal Reserve tends to reduce the monthly balance sheet reduction by about half."
In other words, the good news is that there will be fewer interest rate cuts this year, but it's just a matter of when they will happen.
And from further data, the market has begun to digest the reduced probability of interest rate cuts in June.
The bets on a rate cut in June have dissipated. From the perspective of the swap market, the Fed's fully priced rate cut will be postponed to September.
The market rose too quickly, and when faced with uncertainty, it became anxious too quickly. The current stage is very emotional, and it may take some time to digest and sort it out slowly.
Sports track layout:
1. Champions League final June 1
2. European Cup group stage June 15
In May-September 2022, SANTOS rose by as much as 1597%, and LAZIO rose by 962%. Generally, fan coin speculation will be 1 to 2 months in advance, and now is the right time to lay out! #Santos
There are many fan coins on the market, but the market value of fan coins is generally small, ranging from hundreds of thousands to 30 million US dollars.
Mainly speaking, large-cap fan coins are basically dominated by major league football clubs.
Why is it the ambush window period now?
Although the trend of each currency is not exactly the same, let's take BAR, which has the largest market value, as an example:
The hype is almost based on the dates of the Champions League group stage and finals
It usually starts about 2 months in advance and reaches the peak one month in advance
In June this year, with the dual narrative of the Champions League final and the European Cup, there has been a large volume
In addition: hype has nothing to do with whether the team enters the Champions League!
Most of the fan coins are concentrated in the hands of the top few holders. With the continuous release of the positive expectations of the European Cup, doubling the capital will be a good strategy. There may be a wave of speculation before June!
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