Recently, under the stimulation of many positive factors, the market, which has been declining for two consecutive months, has finally turned around. On June 21st, Bitcoin, which had been building momentum for many days, surged by more than 10% in volume, recovering all the losses in the past two months in one fell swoop. BCH, which was included in the trading list of the upstart exchange EDX Markets, surged by more than 30% during the session. %. During the surge in the market, Bitcoin holdings increased by 16% in a single day to approximately US$2 billion (still growing significantly after the liquidation of US$150 million), while the ratio of the number of longs and shorts dropped rapidly from 2.1 to 0.79. The main force of the bulls The signs of entry are obvious, so is the market about to reverse?

If the market's indifference to the US version of 519 is a signal that the market has fallen to the bottom, then the recent series of positive news is the catalyst for the outbreak of bullish sentiment. From the market point of view, there are mainly three major positive factors that have contributed to the recent rebound.

1. After 10 consecutive rate hikes, the Federal Reserve finally announced a pause in June. Although the Fed's dot plot still gives super hawkish expectations, venture capital markets such as U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, and European stocks have responded to marginal improvements in liquidity in advance. Among them, the Nasdaq index has risen 27.1% since January 2023, recovering all the losses since the rate hike, and the Nikkei 225 index has risen 21%, setting a 30-year high. With the valuation of the peripheral markets generally rising, it is no wonder that the crypto market has started to make up for the rise.

2. On June 15, BlackRock suddenly submitted an application to the SEC to establish a Bitcoin ETF, which instantly sparked heated discussions in the market. In fact, it was not the first attempt for BlackRock to submit a Bitcoin ETF application to the SEC, because BlackRock had applied for a Bitcoin ETF in 2017, 2018, and 2021, but all of them were rejected by the SEC without exception. Therefore, BlackRock's continued application this time can be said to be a repeated failure. However, the reason for the market's excitement is not only BlackRock's application for a Bitcoin ETF, but more importantly, many institutions have suddenly joined the ranks of applying for a Bitcoin ETF. On June 19, Arch Public co-founder Andrew Parish revealed that Fidelity, the world's third largest asset management company, is suspected of considering acquiring Grayscale or applying for a Bitcoin spot ETF. On June 22, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas tweeted that in addition to Wisdomtree, asset management giant Invesco has also resubmitted a spot Bitcoin application. According to past experience, if capital suddenly rushes into a certain field, then they are likely to have received good news in advance.

3. As the US SEC is waving its regulatory stick, EDX Markets, a new cryptocurrency trading platform backed by Wall Street forces such as Citadel Securities, Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab, has begun executing transactions in recent weeks. Unlike other traditional exchanges, EDX Markets is almost tailor-made in accordance with the SEC's compliance standards. First, EDX Markets adopts a third-party custody model. The platform only provides matching services and does not hold user assets, avoiding the moral risks of mixed operations. Secondly, in order to prevent exchanges from manipulating the market with false data, EDX Markets plans to launch a clearing agency, EDX Clearing, to ensure transparent settlement of transactions on the EDX Markets platform. At the same time, EDX Markets has only launched four cryptocurrencies, BTC, ETH, LTC, and BCH, and only provides services to institutional clients. Its compliance standards are benchmarked against CME and BAKKT. So, looking back, the US's heavy-handed regulation of Binance and Coinbase is likely to clear obstacles for Wall Street capital to enter the market.

After Bitcoin re-entered the 30,000 mark, market sentiment quickly turned from cautious to optimistic, and some investors have even begun to bet on the return of the bull market. However, judging from the quality of the rebound, there are still two major concerns about the market recovery: First, during the rebound, the market value of Bitcoin continued to rise, which shows that market funds are still in a defensive attitude of huddling together for warmth. Second, the performance of various sectors is mediocre, and the market lacks a standard-bearer to drive the popularity of the market. As for the first point, any round of bull market is basically a combination of large market value steadily rising and small market value blooming in multiple places. If most of the market targets always underperform the index (Bitcoin), then the market is unlikely to go far. As for the second point, each round of large-scale market usually has a main attack direction, and the increase in this main attack direction often determines the final height of the entire round of market. For example, the main attack direction in 2020 is DeFi, in 2021 it is NFT, and in the first half of 2023 it is AI. If we are currently at the starting point of a new round of market, then the new main attack direction needs to appear as soon as possible.

Although the establishment of a new round of market requires the recovery of risk appetite and the confirmation of the two major signals of the birth of a leader, with the exchange rate of Bitcoin against most altcoins close to the limit, it is basically a high probability event that the altcoins will have a short-term recovery. Judging from the market in the past two days, the judgment that the altcoins will strengthen has been verified in BCH, BSV, LINK and other currencies, and it is expected that the fermentation of the market will continue for some time. #BTC #牛回，速归