#etf Review of 12 Binance Launchpool data: BNB or FDUSD? How to choose between long-term and short-term strategies?

Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

In the recent Binance new coin mining, only BNB and FDUSD can be used to participate. What is the difference in yield between the two? Which is better, the long-term or short-term holding strategy? Odaily Planet Daily will analyze the data of the past 12 periods in this article to see the profit and loss situation under different strategies.

Odaily Note: The short-term strategy refers to buying FDUSD/BNB when the new coin mining starts and selling it at the end of mining. The net profit or loss is the mining income minus the price difference before and after mining. Readers who only want to see the final conclusion can directly read the last section of this article.

FDUSD Data Analysis

The figure below shows the relevant data of FDUSD in the past twelve periods, including the price changes before and after "Binance announced new coin mining", the price changes at the beginning and end of the "new coin mining activity", and the corresponding yields and short-term strategy returns.

After Launchpool was issued, the increase in FDUSD was relatively consistent, with an average of 0.3%;

From the beginning to the end of mining, the decline of FDUSD varies greatly, with an average of -0.4%. This also means that the discount rate of FDUSD is relatively stable, and the long-term price difference is not large;

Similarly, the annualized rate of return for each period also varies greatly, and the relative size between periods is basically consistent with the BNB mining pool;

The absolute return of mining is superimposed on the holding profit and loss, and the absolute return under the short-term strategy is then converted into an annualized rate of return. The corresponding average annualized rate is 67%, and there is no negative value, that is, temporary purchases also have higher returns;

In addition, during the SAGA new coin mining period, FDUSD issued more than 1.1 billion US dollars, but the yield did not decrease. Whether it can be maintained requires multiple verification periods.

BNB Data Comparison

The statistical object is changed to BNB mining pool, and all statistical calibers remain unchanged. The specific data are shown in the following table.

New coin mining has a significant boosting effect on BNB prices, with greater volatility;

Correspondingly, the BNB price fluctuation before and after mining is also greater, and the probability is negative. Only 4 of the 12 periods are significantly positive. This means that if you buy BNB before mining and hold it until maturity, you will most likely have to endure a certain price drop;

The average mining yield of BNB is 136%, which is basically lower than the FDUSD mining pool (average 157%) before the FDUSD issuance.

BNB's short-term mining strategy is extremely volatile, and its average annualized return is almost the same as FDUSD, at 66% and 67% respectively. However, it should be noted that it is mainly supported by the BNB increase in the two rounds of NFP and AEVO (the unit price of BNB has increased by more than 40 USDT).

in conclusion

If I want to buy temporarily and exit after mining, is FDUSD or BNB better?

For users who only want to obtain the income from mining new coins, the returns of the two are similar, but FDUSD is more stable, and for users with neutral strategies, there is no need to hedge BNB, and the yield is actually higher.

Therefore, FDUSD is a better choice for short-term strategies.

For long-term holders, which one is better?

Based on the data of the last 12 periods, FDUSD is only 15.4% higher than BNB in ​​annualized yield. This means that for users, if they believe that BNB can still rise by 15.4% from the current level, BNB has a more obvious advantage.

However, the above conclusion is purely from the perspective of currency holding. In fact, there are also operations such as pledging FDUSD to borrow ETH and other assets, conducting on-chain mining activities during the window period, and transferring back during the mining period. Therefore, it is necessary to decide based on the specific situation of the user.

How long is the mining window period?

From the start of ACE mining to the end of SAGA, there are a total of 118 days, while the mining period is 64 days and the window period is 54 days, so the average interval between each period is only 4.9 days.

So what is the rate of return if you buy BNB/FDUSD at the bottom after mining is completed and sell it after the announcement without participating in the mining strategy?

For BNB, the absolute return of the above operation is 2.44%, which is 1.8% higher than the absolute return of mining. Calculated based on the 4.9-day window period, the annualized return is 181.7%. However, reusing this strategy requires considering the risk of BNB falling from a high level; for FDUSD, the return of this operation is 0.3%, which is much lower than the 1.3% of mining income.