History never repeats itself simply, but it does so with striking similarities every time. We can explore this through historical data. According to the data from the past three halving cycles, it takes 1 to 1.5 years for Bitcoin to reach the highest point of the cycle after each halving. Now there are still 3 days to the next halving, and the halving has not even started, so those who claim that the bull market is over can be regarded as people who are being tricked by the market. This cycle is not just the halving of Bitcoin, but also the Fed's interest rate cut policy and the continuous increase in spot ETFs, so it is difficult to claim that the bull market is over now. Those who are anxious in just two or three days are better off exiting the market as soon as possible, otherwise they will only suffer greater losses in the future, because every pullback is a good time to buy.

Through the data table below, we can see that in the first halving cycle, the increase from the day of halving to the highest point reached 88.23 times, while the second cycle was 30.56 times and the third was 7.87 times. Based on these historical data, we can infer that the increase in this halving cycle will be 7.87/(88.23/30.56+30.56/7.87)/2=2.04 times. If the price of Bitcoin is $65,000 after the halving three days later, the high point of this cycle should be around $130,000.

However, this cycle is relatively special because it completely coincides with the Fed's interest rate cut cycle. Therefore, I simply predict that the high point of this cycle will be between $140,000 and $200,000, and the high point will occur on the (367+523+544)/3=478th day after the halving, which is around August 2025.

Looking forward to more than a year later, we can work together to improve this data table and further understand the market trend. $BTC #比特币减半