News from last night: The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has in principle approved Harvest's investment in Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF products. Because it is not open to the mainland, the incremental capital inflow is actually limited, which is not the same level as the SEC's approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs. Brother Ming believes that there is no need to over-interpret it.

Last night, the United States released the monthly retail sales rate, which is known as the "horror data". The data recorded 0.7%, which was expected to be 0.3%, far exceeding market expectations and hitting a new high since September last year. The data showed that the US economy grew strongly, which further weakened the Fed's expectations of a rate cut. Traders no longer fully expected a rate cut before November. From the previous non-farm employment exceeding expectations, the March CPI announced last week also exceeded expectations, to the recent events between Iran and Israel, which pushed up expectations of rising crude oil prices, to tonight's retail sales data, all pointed to one direction - there is great uncertainty in inflation, and it is very sticky. The expectations of rate cuts have been reduced again and again. The Federal Reserve will not easily relax its loose monetary policy before it is fully grasped. The US stock market opened high and fell, US bonds rose, the US dollar index strengthened, and risk assets fell under pressure. It is impossible to judge the final direction of Iran and Israel. It is a black swan. The US side certainly does not want to fight. Once a fight breaks out, the price of crude oil will rise, which is very unfavorable for the Federal Reserve to fight inflation.

At present, the market is full of negative news, but what Ming Ge wants to say is that the current is not a bear market cycle. It will not fall and never turn back. On the contrary, it will re-enter a new rising stage after sufficient washing and adjustment. It only needs a little positive news. Everyone is more optimistic. In the previous cycles, it also fell before the halving. After sufficient adjustment, it ushered in a new rise. After the halving of Bitcoin, it also marks that the bull market has officially entered the second half.

In the short term, whether the adjustment has been completed, Bitcoin has fallen from a high to a low position by about 20%, and the cottage is generally 50%. Bitcoin has adjusted for about a month. Even if it has not been adjusted yet, Ming Ge also believes that the momentum of the subsequent decline is weak, and the bull market has plummeted. Everyone should have psychological expectations at ordinary times. After the unstable period in April, the market will continue to correct to the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Don't worry, continue to lie flat.#比特币减半 #etf #大盘走势