Noelle Acheson is a former research director at CoinDesk and Genesis Trading.
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We have seen this before.
A radical technological breakthrough yields applications that their promoters insist will revolutionize whatever industry they target. Intense, exciting meetings promise that everything will be new.
Funding based on exponential growth is pouring in on back-of-the-envelope estimates. This was probably the #加密货币 boom around 2016-17.
But today, I want to talk about artificial intelligence ( #AI ).
The attention artificial intelligence is getting these days is undoubtedly dizzying, but it may also be spurred by overpromises.
Even at this stage, the impact of AI is exciting: being able to interact with computing power using natural language is a huge productivity unlock, and generating images and text almost instantly is both helpful and fun for creativity. And this is just the tip of the iceberg.
But the hype we hear about AI now is reminiscent of the hype about cryptocurrency and blockchain a few years ago. That hype was misguided, just like today’s.
The impact of cryptocurrency and blockchain is real and will continue to grow; it’s just that in the early days, what some are trying to sell to the public isn’t real. The same will happen with AI — the impact will be huge, but the hype may leave the field vulnerable to disappointment.
Here are just a few examples: Artificial intelligence will "permanently disrupt" education. The internet may have done that, but are people satisfied with education today? Artificial intelligence will predict medical problems before they arise.
Obviously, this would be amazing, but would better predictions lead to improved diagnoses, or perhaps more risks? If AI-based medicine can save even one life, I’m all for it, but I worry about the costs of widespread anxiety and diagnoses that are missed because the predictive algorithm didn’t catch the problem.
Artificial intelligence could help fight climate change. Faster information processing could provide useful maps of trigger areas, potentially helping focus prevention efforts. But what about the data centers that consume so much data?
Artificial intelligence combined with nuclear fusion will make us a super species. And facilitate interstellar travel. We won't have to worry anymore. This comes from Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI.
Maybe I sound like a crypto enthusiast who hates it when other hot technologies steal the spotlight from our ecosystem.
That’s not really the case — I also hated the early cryptocurrency hype, with all those promises of “blockchain will change everything!” and “everything will be tokenized!”
Actually, I am full of expectations for the future of AI, but I hope we can keep a clear head. I also support the shift of venture capital. You may have seen some comments made by well-known Silicon Valley representatives, such as "If you are doing cryptocurrency, turn to AI." Those venture capitalists who chase the latest technology should definitely do so.
This would significantly reduce funding in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, but the frenzy of funding a few years ago led to unrealistic valuations, unsustainable structures, and some very bad behavior.
The tightening funding environment will hopefully mean that those startups or later-stage operations that receive funding will have stronger product/market fit, be leaner in operations, and thus have a better chance of surviving without burning cash.
The field of AI also welcomes hype: tech utopians who believe that technology can reveal our better selves, visionaries who believe that funding should be based on faith rather than practicality, and consultants who want to scare you into paying for their services.
If AI can deflect “hot” rounds, diffuse overhyped rhetoric, and draw out those who are only in it for the money, the crypto ecosystem will be stronger for it. The promise of blockchain will become more clear. The expected value can become more real. The crypto ecosystem will also benefit from the potential overlap, and there is a lot of it.
Simplifying the coding of blockchain applications, providing decentralized storage for large amounts of data, and providing shared incentives for sustainable energy solutions for data centers are just the tip of the iceberg of possible collaborations. Another overlap I anticipate could be applying the lessons learned from the cryptocurrency hype.
The huge opportunities are incredibly exciting, and if we don’t set our sights high, we’ll never know how high we can reach. But too many broken promises can erode credibility, disappoint investors, and give critics plenty of fuel to attack. The field of artificial intelligence may need to go through this process and learn for itself.
I celebrate genuine excitement for the momentum it spreads and the hope it brings. My concern is when that excitement becomes opportunistic and manipulative.
Those who care about our shared future, and about the solutions and risks that technology may bring, deserve better.
