24/04/16 Miners sell off as halving countdown approaches, which may cause huge selling pressure on BTC. Is the risk of decline still not eliminated?
Bitcoin rebounded to a high of 66,867 last night, but fell back to the first pressure point of 67,000, which we reminded you of, but it did not break through effectively. Ethereum reached a high of 3,277, but fell back to the first pressure point of 3,240, which we reminded you of.
According to the Bitcoin halving countdown data, the current Bitcoin block height is 839276, and there are less than 1,000 blocks left until the fourth halving, which is expected to occur at around 10 am on April 20 (block height reaches 840,000).
Data from 7 leading US/Canadian listed mining companies, with a total market value of US$12.71 billion, currently hold approximately US$2.79 billion worth of Bitcoin in 782 independent wallets.
The fourth halving will reduce the block reward from the current 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, which will significantly reduce the main income of miners. Since electricity is the largest expense, miners need to reduce the cost of use to maintain a positive profit margin. Miners have been steadily selling Bitcoin. The current Bitcoin balance of miners has dropped to 1.794 million BTC, the lowest level since the beginning of 2021. Miners have sold 27,000 BTC since November last year.
Miners are selling Bitcoin not because they are worried about the decline of Bitcoin, but to ensure the continuity of their business after the halving. This round of Bitcoin rise allows miners to make profits at higher prices and provide funds for equipment upgrades in response to the reduction in block rewards (old mining machines may need to be eliminated due to insufficient efficiency).
Flatbread
If you want to outperform more than 90% of investors, first of all, you must be completely opposite to 90% of people in many aspects. That is what we often call anti-human nature. When the rebound to more than 72,000 on April 8 and 9, many people said that it would set a new high, but the big cake fell by more than ten points and hit the freezing point. At the same current position, many people immediately saw 50,000, 40,000 or even 30,000. Once the contract was entered, it was a liquidation. I would like to give you a word of advice: do not go long below the pressure, and do not go short above the support. Go long when the upward trend falls back, and go short when the downward trend line rebounds. Don't chase the short.
The rebound touched 66867 and fell back, and did not recover the safe area of 68200. The risk of falling has not been eliminated. Today, the K-line fell below MA60. The rebound failed to stand back and the probability of falling to 53000-55000 increased. The daily MACD fast and slow lines crossed the zero axis column and grew underwater. The OBV indicator broke away from the yellow line, and the RSI entered the oversold area. First, we will see whether the K-line will fluctuate around MA60 for a few days or whether the rebound will not recover 66867-68200, and the probability of falling to 53000-55000 is very high.
What we also need to guard against is that after falling to MA120, the rebound must also break through the previous high, otherwise there will be a second 519...
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The daily line touched MA120 and rebounded but did not recover the first big negative line. The short position is still strong, but the current price is still above 3056. If Bitcoin falls to more than 50,000, Ethereum will definitely drop to a lower level of 2200-2400. Ethereum will return to its original form, not to mention the copycat.
In fact, I personally am not optimistic about Ethereum in this round of rise or in the next round of bull market. In the last bull market, Ethereum was the only one that stood out, and there was only an ecosystem on Ethereum. There are too many chains now, and various 2-layer chains and various independent chains have dispersed too much funds, and the GAS fee is also relatively high. Some people say that SOL will surpass it, but we don’t know the details, so we have to wait and see.
But one thing you can pay attention to is that the revenue from Bitcoin halving will decrease. In addition to various expenses, miners will definitely speculate on some new coins to obtain higher returns. The most circulated ORDI cannot be determined. Please follow me to continue tracking and sharing.
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