As the Bitcoin halving approaches, another group of people are making a profit.
With only a thousand blocks left before the Bitcoin halving, the Bitcoin ecosystem in April has undoubtedly become the focus of the market. Among them, the hottest topic is the concept of Runes, especially Runestone, which has a market value of 640 million US dollars. This has caused its floor price to soar to 0.074BTC, surpassing BAYC and becoming the second largest project in the NFT market.
It’s not just Runestone. On the magiceden market, 8 of the top 25 NFTs with the largest trading volume are based on the concept of Runes. Since April, the trading volume of NFTs in the Bitcoin ecosystem has significantly exceeded that of Ethereum and Solana, with NFTs based on the concept of Runes accounting for the largest proportion.
What supports these trading volumes is that these "early-moving" Runes projects are like "mining machines". After the halving, the number of airdropped Runes tokens will be calculated based on the holding time and the number of tokens held.
RSIC is one of the earliest projects with "mining machine" attributes, and it has been more than two months since its tokens were airdropped to wallets. There is still about a week before the Bitcoin halving is completed. How much money can early investors expect to make two months ago?
Because Runestone has not yet announced the specific airdrop details, and RSIC, which has more detailed airdrop rules, already has a trading market on the OTC platform whales.market, it is easier to calculate the benefits. Therefore, the following article mainly uses RSIC to calculate and discuss "How much money can the earliest users who participated in the Runes pre-mining be expected to make?"
Revenue Forecast: Taking RSIC as an Example
Before calculating the benefits, BlockBeats first gives new users a brief introduction to the RSIC project.
RSIC is a peer-to-peer rune distribution system based on Bitcoin, built as a digital interactive game at its core. On this platform, players obtain runes by managing and operating RSIC tokens, which are expected to be officially "engraved" on the Bitcoin network at some point in the future. Currently, RSIC is trading at 0.06 BTC. Regarding RSIC Metaprotocol, the total number of NFTs issued is 21,000, and the total issuance of FTs (tokens) is about 21 billion, of which the project party retains 10% of the NFT share.
In addition, when it comes to RSIC, one of the most discussed topics is the mysterious issuer of this project. Initially, there were rumors that this might be the work of Casey, the founder of Ordinals, but as Casey was deeply immersed in the game world of Baldur's Gate 3, this speculation was quickly refuted. The more widely accepted view at present is that RSIC may be deployed by Rocktoshi, the founder of Node Monkey, based on the fact that the minting funds of all parent inscriptions come from the same address.
Tips for maximizing profits
RSIC’s token airdrop rules are very clear and have 4 variables.
The first variable is “Flat”: This variable involves the number of blocks held, stipulating that 21 RSIC tokens can be obtained for each block, with a total not exceeding 30% of all airdrops.
The second variable is “Boosted”: users who hold Boost accelerators can get double the mining efficiency. This is the related boost logic easter egg engraved on the 4703400000000 Satoshi.
The third variable is "Random Allocation": 25% of the total airdrop plus the unallocated Flat and Boost parts. Each RSIC corresponds to a specific type code symbol. When the last digit of the block hash value of a block matches the user's RSIC symbol, the user can get 336 RS tokens. Considering the 16 possibilities of the last digit of the hash value, theoretically there is a chance of success every 16 blocks, which is equivalent to an average of 21 tokens per block.
The fourth variable is the "Halfening Lottery": At the specific halving block 840,000, the project will randomly select 5 addresses holding RSIC Metaprotocol NFTs and distribute 15% of the total tokens (the distribution ratio is 5%, 4%, 3%, 2% and 1%). Users who hold from block 830,000 to block 840,000 will receive one lottery ticket for each block they hold; if they sell before the halving, they will lose the lottery qualification.
Users who hold both RSIC and Boost can expect to mine a total of 63 tokens per block, while users who only hold RSIC can expect to mine a total of 42 tokens per block. It is worth mentioning that even if you have sold RSIC, the quota you accumulated during the holding period is still recorded in your wallet address.
In addition, it should be noted that only RSIC addresses that have been activated are eligible to receive airdrops. Any RSIC that has been transferred or traded on the market is considered activated. This operation is designed to ensure that only active wallets can participate in the distribution of tokens, thereby excluding any dormant wallets and ensuring the fairness and activity of the airdrop.
Easily make $10,000 before the halving
Currently, it can be seen that on the OTC platform whales.market, the buyer price of RSIC Rune Token is mainly concentrated at 0.01u, corresponding to a total market value of 210 million US dollars. Recent transaction records show that the highest unit prices are 0.025, 0.0349 and 0.0374 US dollars, corresponding to market values of 500 million, 730 million and 780 million US dollars, respectively, which is close to Runestone's market value of 640 million US dollars.
However, compared to the continued rise of Runestone, RSIC's NFT market shows a downward trend. On the optimistic side, compared with the highest price of 0.13BTC, RSIC's market value has decreased, but in fact part of its value and market value are more reflected in the tokens.
According to BlockBeats analysis, the current price of buying an RSIC is 0.06BTC, and an additional 0.005btc is paid for a boost accelerator, with a total cost of about $4,700. As of the time of writing, there are still 1,167 blocks to be halved, and it is expected that 63 tokens can be obtained per block, and a total of 73,521 tokens can be obtained, which means that the cost of the token at the time of halving is about $0.0639. This price is much higher than the over-the-counter price of whales.market.
If we do not consider the possible value of RSIC after the airdrop of Runes tokens, and only consider the cost and price of obtaining the tokens, it is obviously a more appropriate choice to directly buy OTC points now.
According to information BlockBeast learned from early users, the price of RSIC when it was first launched on the magiceden market was 0.02BTC. At that time, if you bought one RSIC and held it until the halving period, you would be expected to get 520,000 points without using boost. Calculated at a conservative price of $0.01, the profit is about $5,200, plus the value growth of RSIC itself, that is, the purchase price of 0.02BTC can bring an additional profit of 0.04BTC, equivalent to $2,800. Combined with airdrops from other projects such as Rune Mania Mine to RSIC Boost holders, the conservative comprehensive profit is estimated to be about $10,000. If you hold boost, the points are expected to reach 700,000, and the corresponding profit is expected to be about $13,000.
From a non-conservative perspective, if RSIC is obtained entirely through airdrops, it is equivalent to directly obtaining NFTs worth 0.06 BTC, with a profit of about $4,260. Assuming that 700,000 points are calculated at a price of $0.035, the profit is $24,500. Add to that the $2,000 profit from airdrops from other projects, and the total profit is about $30,000.
In the short term, the Bitcoin halving and the official launch of Runes may trigger strong market sentiment (FOMO). From a longer-term perspective, as Casey's protocol for issuing tokens specifically for the community, its influence may be no less than that of Ordinals. The market value of the leader of the Runes protocol may be comparable to that of the leader of brc20, and may even have a certain impact on it.
Considering the current market situation, Ordi’s market value is $1.5 billion, Sats’ is $990 million, and Runestone’s current market value is $640 million. It can be inferred that users who participated in Runes pre-mining early may still have room for profit growth.
