#全网大爆仓 #CPI数据 #比特币减半
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At a critical moment, the Federal Reserve released a blockbuster announcement.
At 2 a.m. Beijing time on April 11, the Federal Reserve released the latest minutes of its monetary policy meeting in March 2024, which showed that most Federal Reserve officials were worried that inflation would not fall back to the Fed’s target of 2% soon, but still expected that it would be suitable for interest rate cuts this year, and at the same time predicted that the pace of quantitative tightening might be slowed down soon.
On the eve of the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, the U.S. stock market suffered a major negative: the U.S. CPI data for March exceeded expectations across the board, and U.S. stocks collectively plummeted. After the Federal Reserve released the meeting minutes, the declines of the three major U.S. stock indexes narrowed. As of the close, the Dow fell 1.09%, the Nasdaq fell 0.84%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.95%.
After the release of the latest minutes, the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded slightly. As of the close, the Dow fell 1.09%, the Nasdaq fell 0.84%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.95%.
Most of the popular technology stocks fell, Tesla, Intel, Qualcomm, AMD fell more than 2%, Apple Apple: AAPL 175.04 4.33% + self-selected fell more than 1%
The U.S. economic issues have become the focus of voters. Biden defended the results of inflation control and emphasized that the inflation rate has been significantly reduced. But the road to re-election is still challenging because it lags behind Trump and voters have witnessed rising mortgage rates. Biden admitted that the government still needs to work hard on price stability and promised to solve inflation and cost of living problems. Although Biden expects a rate cut, the Federal Reserve's decision-making is independent and may cut interest rates again after the election to avoid affecting the fairness of the election.
Wall Street analysts warned that
The March CPI data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday exceeded expectations again. So far this year, inflation has exceeded expectations for three consecutive months. Wall Street analysts generally believe that it is unlikely that the Fed will cut interest rates in June, and even need to start considering the possibility of raising interest rates, and the 10-year US Treasury yield will rise to more than 4.5%. In contrast, US President Biden insisted on his expectations of a Fed rate cut, saying that the Fed will cut interest rates before the end of the year.
David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said:
"The sound you hear is that the door to a rate cut in June is closed.That’s over.” Goldman Sachs economists predict that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year instead of three times. These economists had previously expected rate cuts in June, September and December, and are now optimistic about rate cuts in July and November. “We believe that what the FOMC needs to see is more months of more moderate data as a balance after three relatively strong inflation data from January to March. "
At the same time, investment bank Barclays predicts that the Fed will only cut interest rates once this year.
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and "high inflation whistleblower" Summers said that (the Fed) rate hikes are still "something I don't want to see", but "the Fed's next step (may be) rate hikes" (this possibility) must be seriously considered. Given U.S. employment, economic growth, and inflation, why would the FOMC consider cutting interest rates? U.S. inflation now "seems to be accelerating (upward)."
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Anna Wong, an economist at Bloomberg, said:
"March is usually the seasonal window for CPI to enter that is favorable for disinflation. However, the core CPI remained the same in March as in February, even though it was equivalent to about 0.3% of core PCE inflation, which is not a good development. This report is more likely than February to make the Fed worry that progress in easing inflation is stagnating, despite the same core data for the two months."
Bloomberg's interest rate strategist Ira Jersey said:
“The rise in the three-month annualized core CPI to 4.5% this year will curb expectations of an early Fed rate cut. The market currently expects a 50 basis point rate cut in 2024, which may be postponed to the end of the year. As expectations of early and large rate cuts dissipate, the flattening of the yield curve is not surprising.”
“The timing of the expected rate cut in 2024 is the focus of market participants, and the linear market’s forecast of the probability of the first rate cut in July has fallen to less than half. However, the current three-month annualized increase in ‘super core’ inflation is over 8%, which may continue to exert upward pressure on the Fed’s expectations of the ultimate interest rate bottom line.”
“With the CPI data higher than expected, it is almost certain that the 10-year Treasury yield will retest the water at 4.51%. If this level cannot be maintained, then 4.7% will be the next stop.”
However, Biden said on Wednesday that he insisted on the expectation of a Fed rate cut and that the Fed would cut interest rates before the end of the year.
Fed official Williams spoke after the release of key inflation data in the United States today!
Based on the latest US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, Federal Reserve official John Williams made a series of statements on the economic outlook and the Fed's future actions.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States was announced as 211,000, lower than the expected 216,000 and the previous value of 222,000. The core PPI (annual rate) in March was 2.4%, slightly higher than the expected 2.3%, and significantly higher than the previous 2.0%. The overall PPI (annual) in the United States in March was 2.1%, lower than the expected 2.2%, but higher than the previous value of 1.6%.
Williams emphasized that the outlook is uncertain and the Fed should rely on data. Williams also announced that the Fed will start cutting interest rates this year, indicating a change in monetary policy.
Williams said that the Fed has made "significant progress" in reducing inflation. He also said that there is evidence that reserve levels remain ample, which may affect the Fed's interest rate decision.
Summary: There will be a rate cut, but there is a high probability of delay.
Impact on the cryptocurrency market, the bull market is delayed, and Bitcoin will experience turbulent conditions after halving (high volatility, frequent callbacks)
Suggestions: Reduce holdings, wait for opportunities, do not open long-term contracts, and do not hold heavy positions!
