Speculators are showing signs of nervousness ahead of Bitcoin's historic quadrennial uptrend ahead of its code adjustment. Implied volatility for Bitcoin options increased significantly last weekend, reversing the downward trend observed the previous week. Bitcoin price experienced a range swing of more than 8% on Friday, creating excitement among investors.
Implied volatility on contracts expiring in the next two weeks saw the most significant increase, jumping from 59% to 71% in just two days. This shows that expectations for volatility in the near term have increased. Traders who are undecided but willing to pay more for options are likely looking for protection against price fluctuations. This has led to potentially high premiums for downside protection.
Since U.S. exchange-traded funds were approved to hold Bitcoin in January, the price of the cryptocurrency has mostly increased. However, in the past month the price has fluctuated within a certain range. Investors are now focusing on the 'halving' event planned to take place around April 20. This event will halve the rewards miners receive for verifying transactions on the blockchain, effectively reducing the supply of additional tokens.
Bartosz Lipinski, founder and CEO of Cube Exchange, believes that the sudden increase in Bitcoin expirations is related to people betting on the demand for Bitcoin on the halving day. He argues that decreasing supply will make Bitcoin more expensive. This event is unique in Bitcoin history as it puts pressure on an already inelastic price.
While previous halvings showed mixed short-term effects, the long-term effects were bullish. But Kaiko, a data analytics firm, warns that a sample size of three is not necessarily large enough to draw firm conclusions. They also note that other bullish events in the sector also contributed to the gains.
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I EXPLAIN IN DETAIL.
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