Logically, halving is a reduction in supply. So this is a growth factor.
Historically, this was the case - after all the past halvings, growth began after some time. But isn't this too simple? Can growth come when everyone is waiting for it? This is very similar to the consensus, the dangers of which I talked about 4 years ago.
Let's remember the story of the Bitcoin ETF. Then, too, logic dictated that the adoption of ETFs would lead to growth. But some people thought it was too easy and that the market would actually fall once ETFs were adopted. I expressed my thoughts on the market reaction to the Bitcoin ETF here. At the beginning of December 2023, with the Bitcoin price around 40K.
He said that there would be growth right away, then drain, then organic growth.
What actually happened: on January 11, when the ETF was accepted, there was an increase to almost 49K, then a drop to 39-38.6K, which was quickly bought, then new highs above 73K and less and less likely to see Bitcoin even below 50K.
THAT is exactly as I said).
The situation with halving is similar. But there are also differences. If there was intrigue with BTC-ETF (whether it will be accepted in January or March, what volumes and interest in the instrument there will be), then with halving there is no such intrigue. It is known in advance when it will happen; the process does not require anyone’s approval. If technically something goes wrong, it will be a factor in the short-term drain, of course. But I have never heard of such stories before).
Therefore, the news that halving has taken place is unlikely to produce any explosive immediate growth. Since this is positive, but quite expected.
The growth of Bitcoin and repeated updating of highs (the plan for 2024 was fulfilled already in the first quarter) attracted a new audience to the market, mostly of dubious quality (since a high-quality audience entered the market much earlier). Why the quality of the audience is important, I explained here.
Many of this audience seriously believe that a halving will occur and the price will fly into space. To make the most of this, many people open positions with leverage. This factor can cause a spill of 10-15% under some pretext.
Therefore, I do not rule out that the very fact of halving will not cause any special movements in the market (perhaps we will update the ATH, go somewhere between 75 and 80K, but hardly anything more). And soon the genocide of deer will begin with a movement towards 60-62K. A more extreme option is 56-55K.
But this is white noise.
The most interesting thing will come later. Already, large amounts of Bitcoin are being purchased under ETFs. Including directly from the miners. BlackRock is in first place, but other ETF issuers are also not sitting still, increasing their momentum and systematically buying Bitcoin.
And the supply from miners will be reduced by 2 times. The drain from Grayscale, which has been fueling the market since January, also does not last forever.
At the same time, the demand for both Bitcoin itself and ETFs for it will only grow. After all, these 5 reasons that make Bitcoin’s growth inevitable, and which we voiced almost a year ago, remain valid.
An increase in demand and a sharp reduction in supply leaves no choice in the direction of Bitcoin’s movement.
Even if many people understand this.
Although in reality there is no consensus. Even experienced market participants, such as Arthur Hayes (former owner of Bitmex) talk about a 50% drop in Bitcoin after the halving.
Not to mention the rest. Even in our comments there are Bitcoin adherents for 20K soon; so in the market crowd there are many who will sell everything before halving or even open shorts.
It’s like now the whales will scam everyone and bring Bitcoin down to 30-20K in order to make purchases there. For some reason, at all times this version is the basic one for a typical deer). Only the numbers change.
Therefore, my forecast is nothing special after the halving, a possible (but not obligatory) drain within 20-40 days after it, then organic growth.
In the near future I will update my Bitcoin goals for 2024, since the previously outlined ones have already been achieved. And I will consider what has changed in the global reasons for the growth of Bitcoin in the current economic and geopolitical situation.
