How Much Will Bitcoin’s Price Go Up After This Month’s Halving?
The $1 trillion question: What will happen to Bitcoin’s price after halving?
If history is our guide, not much.
What did Bitcoin’s price do after the three previous halving events?
In 2012, bitcoin’s price languished for more than a month. In 2016, its price dropped and took four months to get back to even. In 2020, its price stayed flat for two months.
See for yourself:
Don’t be surprised if we get a similar outcome this time.
Typical operation
To summarize a far more nuanced, complicated story:
In 2024, we caught a massive bid. This round of speculative enthusiasm pushed Bitcoin’s price to a new all-time high. The market found itself overextended in a way we’ve never seen heading into a halving event.
Today, there’s no reason to think this market can’t go a little higher for a little longer, simply on the momentum it’s built up for months.
Stepping back from the day-to-day commotion, we’re still at extremes on many market metrics and overdue for a substantial correction.
It all makes sense and fits historical patterns. I guess we’ll see whether these bids keep pouring in at the pace we’ve seen in the past two months. Otherwise, we could have a bumpy road ahead.
But Mark, the ETFs!
Those Wall Street ETFs have taken in $12 billion in new inflows.
While that is a substantial accomplishment and certainly helpful, it can’t count for the $650 billion rise in Bitcoin’s market cap — even if you give the ETFs a generous multiplier effect.
Anyway, how sure are you that Aunt Sally, Uncle Morton, and the pickleball crew haven’t already gotten their 1–3% allocation? If that’s the case, they have no reason to put more money into the ETFs.
