Looking at the trend of Bitcoin in the afternoon, it feels a bit like the period from mid-December last year to mid-January this year: Bitcoin broke through 44,000 and then fell into volatility. It rebounded after stepping on the 30-day line twice. The strong non-farm data in early January caused a flash drop and then quickly pulled up. The strong expectations of ETFs prevented it from falling. With the ETFs through Bitcoin on January 11, there was a surge and then a fall, and a mid-level adjustment came.
This time it is also very similar: it rebounded after two declines since mid-March. Yesterday was the third rebound. It looked like it would still fall in the afternoon. It just so happens that tomorrow night is the release of the March CPI data, and then the Bitcoin halving will come in more than ten days.
It feels that because of the recent rise in oil prices, the broad CPI in March may be slightly higher than expected. Of course, the focus should be on the core CPI, whether it is in line with expectations or slightly higher than expectations. If the core CPI also exceeds expectations, it will actually hit the market, and the market will be hit again. The expectation of interest rate cuts will be further delayed.
There are still more than 10 days after the CPI, and the halving expectation means that even if the CPI exceeds expectations tomorrow night, the price of the cake should not fall too much. It may rebound soon after falling like in January, and rise again at the time of halving.
The key is that after the halving, special attention needs to be paid. If the core CPI exceeds expectations and the expectation of interest rate cuts is repeatedly hit, the market sentiment will be affected, so there is a great possibility of another mid-level adjustment after the halving.
Of course, if the CPI data is lower than expected, it shows that inflation is still on the downward trend channel, which is good news for the market and the previous market expectations can rise again.
Overall, the subsequent market recovery and strengthening will be slow on the one hand, and the changes in market expectations brought about by macro data will be slow.
On the other hand, we should pay attention to the financial report season that will start in mid-to-late April. Good financial reports mean that the fundamentals of the business are still strong.
There are two major fundamentals in the market now: one is the strong economy, which recent economic data show is strong;
The other is how the business fundamentals revealed by the financial report are, especially determining whether the main line of AI will continue to refuel or short-term stall.
On the other hand, we should pay attention to the Fed's move to slow down the balance sheet reduction at the May interest rate meeting. The interest rate cut has been postponed, and judging from the confidence of the March interest rate meeting, slowing down the balance sheet reduction may come before the interest rate cut.
For the cryptocurrency market, ETF capital inflows and the issuance of stablecoins are important to focus on.
