📉 Global Bitcoin Market Analysis
Bitcoin is showing positive dynamics despite a decrease in interest from major investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs and selling pressure from miners. The price of Bitcoin is entering a pre-halving bullish rally phase. However, historically, a correction has preceded Bitcoin halving.
Currently, we are considering two possible scenarios around the Bitcoin halving:
1. Reaching a historical high before the halving in the range of 80,000 - 87,000, followed by a likely deep correction before continuing the bullish rally. To realize this scenario, the price of Bitcoin needs to hold above the 70,000 level with a weekly candle. If Bitcoin can maintain its growth momentum until the halving, then we may expect a global correction of the entire growth since 2023 after the halving. The halving could serve as a signal to sell, based on the cryptocurrency reaching a local peak.
2. A more significant correction now and a historical high update after the halving, amidst changes in the Federal Reserve's policy and liquidity inflows into the markets.
Above the current ATH, there are no more resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will be using trend lines, Fibonacci extension levels, and analyzing accumulations of large order blocks in exchange order books.
We have a local upward trend line that has been relevant since November 2023. Its test could occur at the 75,000 level, supported by a large block of pending orders. Above that, in the range of 80,000 - 90,000, there is a global trend line based on the peaks of the two previous Bitcoin cycles. The 1.38 Fibonacci extension level is also located there. The highest trend line is in the range of 1.61 - 1.78 Fibonacci levels, and its test could start from the 100,000 level.
