In January, I released a forecast for the first half of the year, which was basically consistent with the actual trend in terms of long and short directions, time range, and space range. The forecast for the second half of the year is as follows:
1. From the second half of the year to the beginning of next year, BTC will fluctuate downward, and it is likely to fall back to 20,000, with a certain probability of hitting a new low in the bear market
From a macro perspective, the only thing to focus on is interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion. Balance sheet expansion means more funds, while interest rate cuts mean lower-cost funds.
The cessation of interest rate hikes, i.e. the highest interest rate, also means that the capital market is facing the worst liquidity moment. The longer it lasts, the more disastrous it will be for BTC. The market expects the last interest rate hike to be in June-July, and a rate cut in the first quarter of next year.
From the market point of view, unlike the bull market in 2017, the bull market in 2021 left a huge locked range above 32,000, which can only be released by the next bull market.
Secondly, the magnitude of this round of rebound (about 30% from the highest point of the bull market) and the form of the pull-up (rapid pull-up and long-term sideways trading) both show that the main force's control over the chips is far weaker than in 2019. 20,000 is a very important support and psychological barrier for BTC. It is highly likely that it will fall back to 20,000, and there is a certain probability that it will hit a new low in the bear market.
The sign of the end of the bear market is extreme panic, which is the case with 312, 519, and FTX crashes. We cannot predict the bad news, but when the price is within 20,000, such panic occurs, that is when we need to be greedy.
2. BTC.D's bullish trend, most altcoins will hit new lows, but it is also a historic time for altcoins to build positions
The bullish trend of BTC.D has been analyzed many times in the past two months. This round of rebound will not see a copycat season, and the actual trend also verifies this view.
BTC.D has been consolidating at the pressure level in the past two years. In the second half of the year, it will break through the 49% pressure level as BTC falls and absorbs blood. Most altcoins will also hit new lows as BTC continues to fall and absorb blood. There is no construction without destruction. When BTC.D reaches a stage high and BTC stabilizes, it will be the golden time to enter the altcoin market.
Is it true that there will be no opportunities to make orders in the second half of the year?
Remember that any sector rotation is the wealth code of the cryptocurrency circle, and sector rotation must start from the leading project
1.Layer 2
Ethereum Cancun upgrade is expected to be carried out in October this year. EIP-4844 will increase the processing speed of Ethereum Layer 2 by 10-100 times, and the cost of each transaction on L2 will be dozens of times cheaper than it is now.
ARB
It is the leader in the second-layer expansion plan, and as a new coin, it has not yet hit the third wave. It is very likely to hit the expected level before the Cancun upgrade, so the layout is relatively cost-effective.
ON
After the massive unlocking, the pressure on fundamentals will be relatively small. Similarly, if the Cancun upgrade brings Layer2 summer, the OP rollup ecosystem will definitely rise.
MATIC
Having seen the potential of ZK and invested $1 billion to build a ZK solution, with 4 solutions currently available, it is not hard to imagine that when the ZK hotspot brought about by the Cancun upgrade emerges, Polygon will take off
AI sector currency recommendation
AGIX
It is one of the earliest projects to combine AI and blockchain, and it is also one of the AI concept coins that has risen the most this round.
DONE
Founded in 2017 and launched through an IEO on Binance in 2019, it is an artificial intelligence laboratory that aims to build an open, decentralized machine learning network with a crypto-economy.
OCEAN
Ocean Protocol is a blockchain-based ecosystem that allows individuals and businesses to easily unlock the value of their data and monetize it through the use of ERC-20 based data tokens. Through Ocean Protocol, publishers can monetize their data while maintaining privacy and control, while consumers can now access previously unavailable or hard-to-find datasets.
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