The price of Ethereum (ETH) in relation to Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a technical formation known as a death cross. Often considered a harbinger of a longer-term bearish impulse, this pattern occurs when the short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average, indicating a potential major shift in investor sentiment. Historical trends are clear: the impotence of ethers means a lack of fuel also for other alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins).
Death cross on the ETH/BTC chart
By marking the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 200-week SMA on the ETH/BTC chart (e.g. on TradingView), we will notice that they are close to crossing (from above). This formation, called a "death cross" in the jargon of technical analysts, suggests a period of risk aversion and prolonged, weaker performance of ethers compared to Bitcoin. In practice, this also means bad news for altseason supporters. Why and what does this mean?
Since 2017 or even longer, the cryptocurrency market has been moving quite stably within cycles called "seasons": Bitcoin usually ran north first, and then capital, when BTC ran out of breath, poured into subsequent asset niches. digital due to the growing appetite of speculators and reduced risk aversion. First Ethereum, then layer one blockchains (L1s such as Solana, Polkadot, Cardano), then the rest of the ecosystem and finally memecoins and NFTs. The ETH/BTC pair itself was often a litmus test of the altseason, along with the chart of the so-called Bitcoin (BTC.D) dominance.
This is confirmed by the decline in volume on many coins, poor correlation of coins to BTC, aggressive selling often visible - increases negated by the correction of the entire movement, constant search for new lows.
Another predictor of a future collapse is a massive campaign and promotions encouraging people to buy coins. Whales are looking for suckers to buy very expensive coins. It is a market in which one's profit is the loss of other participants. This is a zero-option game.
