Three months have passed in the first half of 2024, and everyone is more excited about the bull market. However, there is no exciting market in the current market, which not only makes some investors anxious, but also makes most investors start to speculate whether the super bull market in the currency circle in 2024 will be in the first half or the second half of the year? According to the time of previous bull markets, bull markets are driven by halving. The halving time of Bitcoin is April, which may mean that the bull market will start in the first half of 2024. As for the big bull market, it is very likely to occur in the second half of 2024. The editor will analyze it in detail below.

Will the super bull market in the cryptocurrency world in 2024 occur in the first half or the second half of the year?

The super bull market in the cryptocurrency world in 2024 may be in the second half of the year. History will not simply repeat itself, but will be surprisingly similar. The bull market in the cryptocurrency world over the years has been driven by Bitcoin, and the bull market of Bitcoin is generally driven by the halving market. What is certain now is that the next halving will be in early May 2024. According to experience, the market will most likely start a bull market 3-6 months before the halving. In other words, it will be launched around the first quarter of 2024.

Since traditional funds have a high degree of participation in the cryptocurrency circle, they will be greatly affected by the traditional peripheral financial environment. For example, this bear market is largely caused by interest rate hikes. According to the global interest rate hike storm, most economists expect the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates until the first quarter of 2023. Moreover, due to the interest rate hike, the economy has entered a recession, which will last until the first quarter. It will take until the second half of 2024 for the interest rate cut cycle to enter the second half of 2024 for the economy to recover.

Spot ETFs have given the entire market a shot in the arm. In addition, web3, the metaverse, and the digital economy are developing in full swing, which will undoubtedly become a breakthrough point for promoting global economic development in the next few decades. Although these do not represent virtual currencies, they are closely related, which is also a long-term strong positive for it.

How long does a bull market in the cryptocurrency world usually last?

Because the duration of the cryptocurrency bull market is affected by many factors, it is impossible to give a precise answer. According to historical records and market analysis, the duration of a cryptocurrency bull market generally ranges from 6 months to 2 years. For example, from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017, the price of Bitcoin rose from less than $1,000 to nearly $20,000, and the bull market lasted for more than a year. In early 2019, the price of Bitcoin gradually rose from $3,000 to a high of $14,000 in June, and the bull market lasted for nearly 6 months.

It should be noted that the rise and fall of digital currency prices is very unstable. The greater the price rises, the more likely it is to adjust, and the greater the adjustment. Therefore, the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle cannot continue to rise, and there will definitely be optimizations and ups and downs.

The duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle is related to various factors, such as market demand, policy control, technological innovation, community activities, etc. The following is a specific analysis:

1. Market demand: The rise and fall of digital currency prices largely depends on market demand, especially the mentality of investors. If the market demand is strong and a large amount of funds flow into the digital currency market, the price will naturally rise. On the contrary, if the market demand is insufficient, the price will also fall. Therefore, market demand is one of the important factors that determine the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle.

2. Policy control: Policy control also has a great impact on the digital currency market. Different countries and regions have different policy controls and different attitudes towards digital currencies. Some countries have taken strict regulatory measures on digital currencies, such as banning ICOs and shutting down digital currency exchanges, which will lead to a short-term decline in the digital currency market. However, some countries have adopted integrated policies for digital currencies, such as allowing digital currency trading and promoting digital currency payments, which will drive the rise of the digital currency market.

Therefore, policy control is also one of the important factors affecting the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle.

3. Technological innovation: The digital currency market is a market driven by technological innovation. With the continuous advancement of technology, the development of digital currency is also accelerating. For example, Bitcoin uses blockchain applications. The emergence of this technology has made digital currency more secure and decentralized, leading the rise of the digital currency market. Therefore, technological innovation is also one of the important factors affecting the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle.

4. Community activities: The community of the digital currency market is also very active, and the impact of street activities, discussions and promotions on the digital currency market cannot be ignored. For example, some communities have launched promotion activities for digital currencies, which will attract more people to master digital currencies, thereby increasing market demand and prices. Therefore, community activities are also one of the important factors affecting the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle.

All of the above is the answer to the question of whether the super bull market in the cryptocurrency market will occur in the first half or the second half of 2024. The super bull market in the cryptocurrency market requires unexpected favorable factors, which are concentrated in sufficient capital inflows, unexpected interest rate cuts, loose regulatory approvals, and major innovations in the industry. These will all be factors that contribute to the super bull market. But on the other hand, unfavorable market factors, such as black swan events, are often unpredictable, just like no one could have predicted the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In short, the risk assets in the cryptocurrency market are highly volatile, and risks and opportunities coexist. Investors need to have a strong mentality.

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