Last night's non-farm data unexpectedly exceeded expectations, causing market volatility. US stocks and gold rose sharply, but BTC performed flat and has not yet recovered the high point of the previous night. On-chain data shows that BTC in exchanges has continued to flow out during the recent decline. Since April 1, more than 30,000 BTC have flowed out of exchanges, and Binance and Coinbase have each flowed out 10,000 BTC. This shows that large international capital is actively buying. Although the Federal Reserve has postponed the interest rate cut due to inflationary pressure, the market has experienced two weeks of adjustment, but the current situation still needs to be observed. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in June, it will be the best option. Otherwise, it is also wise to gradually reduce the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.
BTC has not fully recovered yet, so it is recommended to avoid chasing short-term skyrocketing currencies. The 4-hour chart is unstable, and it is difficult to stabilize at 68,500. There is a risk of a second bottom, and the washout may continue for some time. This April is crucial for the cryptocurrency market. First, the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving is coming, which is an important event. In addition, several well-known projects will release tokens or make major upgrades. Here are four important cryptocurrency events to watch this month.
1. Bitcoin halving
The next Bitcoin halving will occur in about 12 days. Once it takes effect, it will reduce the number of new Bitcoins in circulation by 50%. Bitcoin's current inflation rate is already very low, less than 2% per year, so from a fundamental perspective, the halving is not a big deal. But from a psychological perspective, this is not the case.
Historically, Bitcoin has performed very well in the months following each halving event. Therefore, retail investors and large institutions are likely to buy crypto assets again, hoping that history will repeat itself. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is expected to approve the first spot Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong in the second quarter. All events pave the way for Bitcoin.
2. Stacks Nakamoto Upgrade
Stacks is a second-layer Bitcoin solution that makes smart contracts and dApps more powerful. Stacks’ Nakamoto upgrade has been in development for a long time and it looks like it will finally start rolling out on mainnet next month.
The Nakamoto upgrade will:
Allows the use of sBTC (an asset pegged to BTC) in DeFi on Stacks
Reduce network block time from 10 minutes to seconds
Increase the scalability of Stack L2
The upgrade could spark a new wave of Bitcoin L2 enthusiasm. Stacks token $STX can also be seen as a beta version of Bitcoin, and Stacks is by far the most popular project built on top of Bitcoin.
3. Solana Airdrop Season
Last year, the massive airdrop announced by Jito revived the Solana ecosystem. In April, several other well-known Solana dApps will launch tokens: Parcl, Drift Protocol, Kamino. All of these protocols will have airdrops. This list only contains officially confirmed airdrops, and there may actually be some unannounced ones.
Large airdrops can have a huge positive impact on the ecosystem as they inject more liquidity into it. For example, here’s what happens to $SOL after the $JTO is announced in November 2023: Considering that the SOL market cap is now over $80 billion, I think it’s unrealistic to expect SOL to grow 2-3x again in the short term. However, Solana will likely benefit greatly from these ecosystem airdrops, as it has in the past.
4. Eigenlayer Mainnet Launch + Potential Token Launch
The Eigenlayer token is likely to go live in late April or early May.
There are multiple reasons for this:
The Eigenlayer mainnet is confirmed to be live in the next few weeks (this may be the best time for Eigenlayer to also launch a token at the same time)
Many early investors said the token will be released in late April or early May
Additionally, April may also be the month when the first Eigenlayer Active Verification Service (AVS) goes live. Altlayer is a popular example of AVS, which is a decentralized protocol for Rollups.
The protocol that chooses to "rent" security from Ethereum through Eigenlayer is called AVS (can be an oracle, sidechain, L2, etc.)
Many of these AVS projects will likely conduct airdrops for Eigenlayer users, just as Altlayer did when it launched its token a few months ago.
According to the EtherFi team, 8 AVS will soon begin distributing points or token rewards to EtherFi’s eETH liquidity re-staking token holders.
In conclusion, April will be a highly anticipated month in the cryptocurrency space, with many important events and trends that investors need to pay close attention to.
