[Non-farm data far exceeded expectations, the Fed's rate cut may be postponed to September, gold and Bitcoin fell]
On the evening of the 5th, Beijing time, the US non-farm employment data for March was released. The data far exceeded expectations, and the average hourly wage increased by 4.1% year-on-year, indicating that the US economy is still resilient and inflationary pressure is still high, making the market predict that the Fed's first rate cut will be postponed to September.
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of non-farm employees in the United States increased by 303,000 in March, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate was 3.8%, indicating that the prosperous and resilient labor market is still accelerating. The highly watched average hourly wage index increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year, both in line with Wall Street's expectations.
In terms of specific data, the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of non-farm employees in the United States increased by 303,000 in March, which was better than expected. The number of non-farm employment in February was revised down to 270,000. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.8% in March, in line with expectations.
The number of new jobs in March easily exceeded expectations, indicating that the prosperous and resilient labor market is still accelerating.
The closely watched average hourly wage index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year, both in line with Wall Street expectations.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 200,000 in March and the unemployment rate to fall to 3.8%. Average hourly wages are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year.
After the release of the March nonfarm report, the swap market lowered its expectations for the Fed's rate cut in 2024. The swap market fully priced in the first date of the Fed's rate cut to be postponed from July to September. U.S. interest rate futures price in two Fed rate cuts in 2024.
